Tiêu đề 20170728_BSC_Vietnam Sector Outlook_EN_3Q2017
Loại báo cáo Phân tích ngành
Nguồn BSC
Chi tiết Ngày : 28/07/2017
Số trang : 76
Ngôn ngữ : English
Dạng tệp : .PDF
Kích thước : 2255 Kb
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Tóm tắt

Investment strategy for 3Q2017

  • Policy rates reduced, boosting economic growth. From July 10, 2017, the State Bank of Vietnam will reduce policy rates. Accordingly, refinancing interest rates, rediscount rates, overnight lending rates in interbank electronic payment and loans to cover shortfall of capital in clearing payment by the SBV to banks decreased by 0.25% pa. This move will considerably reduce costs for credit institutions, thereby reducing interest rates on loans and supporting businesses.
  • In addition, the State Bank of Vietnam also reduced the maximum short-term lending interest rate in VND by 0.5% pa for credit institutions in some economic sectors. This decision will reduce lending costs for related business groups.

Notable investment topics in Q3.

  • Investment topics related to "listing OTC stocks" (Viettel Post, Viettel Global, Viettel Construction, KDF, VCI, HD Bank, May Viet Thang, Phong Phu Garment ...), and "Equitized state-owned enterprise” (Binh Son refinery) will continue to be the story of market attention, and will become stronger as the equitizing and listing process accelerates in the end of Q3 and beginning of Q4 2017.
  • Investment topics related to "divesting or no room stocks" are FPT, NTP, BMP, DIG, SAB, PVI, DHG, DMC. Though the timing has yet determined but stocks prices would have many changes when the related information gradually published. From what happened to pharmaceutical industry, we should not underestimate the demand from foreign investors in attractive sectors when the foreign ownership room was loosened.
  • The topic of "basic stocks, leading stocks, high dividends", when 2Q business results are gradually released, the stocks with strong growth will continue to raise. Leading stocks such as lightning bulb (RAL), radiation (APC), Insurance (PVI), pharmaceutical (DHG), jewelry (PNJ), beverage (VNM) and so on are expected to have good growth thanks to strong demand in the domestic market.
  • Investment theme "Free Trade Agreements", although the TPP agreement was not passed, what happened in textile stocks showed the influence of foreigners investments and strong demand growth from export markets will have a strong impact on related sectors (such as fruit). Except for textiles stocks prices that have risen sharply, stocks related to free trade agreements, such as Seaports, Infrastructures – Industrial zones, and Logistic, could be considered in 2H2017.
     

Notable risks

  • Risks of commodity price movements will continue to affect the entire market (Oil & Gas, Rubber, Iron Ore, Plastic Seeds, and so on). Regarding oil and gas, nonparticipating countries in OPEC's production cut program are projected to increase output, thereby neutralizing OPEC's cuts. Accordingly, financial institutions have also lowered the forecast for oil prices.
  • Important elections in the third quarter of 2017 are the German Federal Election and the Chinese Communist Party Congress, which are main factors affecting global economic and global politics.