Tiêu đề 20171106_BSC_Vietnam Monthly Review_EN_2017M10
Loại báo cáo Phân tích vĩ mô
Nguồn BSC
Chi tiết Ngày : 08/11/2017
Số trang : 16
Ngôn ngữ : English
Dạng tệp : .PDF
Kích thước : 801 Kb
Tải về: 299
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Tóm tắt

Macroeconomic

  • The PMI dropped to 51.6 from 53.3. Industrial production index rose sharply over the same period last year and the inventory index of the pharmaceutical industry fell sharply.
  • Total retail sales of consumer goods and services in October 2017 reached VND 340.9 trillion, up 12.7% over the same period last year.
  • Foreign direct investment in October increased sharply (57.14% yoy). The distribution of electricity, gas sector, hot water and air conditioning and manufacturing are still the two leading sectors in attracting FDI.
  • The VND/USD interbank exchange rate slightly increased compared to the end of September and tended to increase slightly in the future with the range of 22,695 - 22,755 VND/USD. The interbank interest rates declined sharply, showing very good liquidity.
     

Stock market

  • VN-Index maintained its uptrend while HNX-Index fluctuated. VN-Index increased 4.08% mom to 837.28 points; HNX-Index decreased 2.3% to 105.16 points.
  • The average liquidity on both exchanges increased 4.7% compared to that of September 2017 and remained at VND 4.530 billion/session or USD 201.61 million/session. Foreigners were net buyers on the HSX and HNX, with the value of VND 165 billion on the HSX and VND 252 billion on the HNX.
  • P/E of VN-Index and the HNX-Index were respectively at 16.56 and 12.49. P/E of HNX-Index stayed at 4th position, while P/E of VN-Index increased to 10th place.



 Market Outlook next month

  • VN-Index will remain around 840 points. The index is expected to increase in the first two weeks of November, after which there may be a downward pressure if there is no new cash flow after the APEC summit, the suggested scenarios are as follows::
  • In the bullish case, VN-Index will continue to conquer the new peak in early November with the support of Bluechips and other sectors such as Banking, Real Estate, Consumer, and Manufacturing. The index kept a high level when there was a new cash flow from foreign investors after APEC. Banking sectors, state-owned enterprises divestments will remain the pillar of the market.
  • In the bearish case, VN-Index will return to the level of 810 points when large-cap stocks reach saturation, cash flow is limited from domestic and foreign investors.



Recommended stocks:

  • Industry and sector were rated positively in the Fourth Sector Outlook for 2017;
  • Sector that are directly benefited from high credit growth and outstanding earnings such as banks, real estate, construction;
  • Leading stocks, state shares divesting, stock that allow new room for foreign investor, newly listed stocks;
  • Low valuations in large and medium capitalization stocks, defensive stocks, or stock that are expected to improve profitability such as Consumer, Electricity and Technology.


In the long run, BSC's recommended stocks will be mentioned in the Vietnam Sector Outlook Report of the fourth quarter in 2017 (Link), stocks with good performance are recommended in the Weekly Report (Link) and Industry Sector / Company Update report (link).