Title Week 41_Forecast on the portfolio of component stock of the VN-Diamond and VN-FinSelect indices for Q4/2024, with some notes related to the VN30 index_241007
Report Type Báo cáo tuần
Source BSC
Detail Date : 07/10/2024
Total pages : 0
Language : English
File Type : .PDF
FileSize : 1447 Kb
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Short Content

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
The global stock market adjusted in response to the escalating conflict in the Middle East

Iran launched missiles to attack Israel and Israel began a ground campaign in Lebanon, pushing the conflict in the Middle East to a new level. The global stock market declined while oil and DXY prices soared.
- The US stock market decreased by an average of 0.8%, EU600 -2.1%, Nikkei 225 -3.2%.
- Commodity index increased by 2.4%; The main contribution was from the increase in oil +8.9%, metals (Steel +12.8%; Tin +5.6, Nickel +5.1%). 
- DXY index +1.4% and US TP 10y increased +0.09% during the week.
One week before the release of the FOMC minutes, the FED chairman said that the 0.5% interest rate cut should not be considered a precedent and will instead be the next step on a smaller scale. He forecasts that there will be two more interest rate cuts of 0.25% each time. The FED Chairman also believes in the strength of the US economy and sees inflation continuing to cool down. Last week, the IMF expressed concern that US tariffs pose a risk of pushing up consumer prices and affecting low-income households. Both presidential candidates support tax increases if elected in November 2024.
Monetary policy minutes of central banks of Australia, New Zealand and FOMC minutes; CPI and unemployment claims; UK GDP and Canadian Unemployment Rate; Vietnam's macroeconomic data is noteworthy information next week.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
VN-Index lost momentum at the resistance level of 1,300 points and turned down due to profit-sealing pressure

Despite support from Banking stocks, VN-Index once again missed the deadline with 1,300 points. VN-Index decreased 1.6%, liquidity improved for the third consecutive week with an increase of 24% compared to the previous week.
- The Banking group accounts for 4/5 stocks contributing the highest point increase to VN-Index. However, the differentiation of this group and the decrease in price from real estate stocks caused the index to lose momentum at the resistance level.
- The market reversed with 16/18 sectors decreasing. Banking and basic resources are two rare growing industries with an increase of 0.3% while Real Estate, Auto Parts and Retail have a decrease of 2.7% - 4.2%.
- Foreign investors net bought 9.6 million USD compared to net selling of 24 million USD last week.
Market sentiment is likely to change when the Chinese stock market reopens on October 8. Investors should consider buying and increasing the proportion of stocks in low price areas in anticipation of the third quarter earnings announcement season next week.
This weekend, GSO will announce macroeconomic indicators for September, including GDP indicators for the third quarter. The PMI index announced by S&P Global dropped sharply from 52.4 to 47.3 points, showing that production health has weakened significantly, mainly due to the severe impact of Typhoon Yagi. A significant decrease in output and number of new orders will affect GDP in the third quarter but will quickly rebound in the fourth quarter.