X-Stock | VCB 77,800 +30%: BOOSTED BY POLICY TAILWINDS

VALUATION VIEW 

BSC recommends BUY on VCB with a target price of VND77,800/share, implying 30% upside from the closing price on 15/09/2026. We value the stock using a blended P/B and P/E approach with a 70/30 weighting, corresponding to a target P/B of 2.4x on 2026F book value and a target P/E of 16x. The target price is raised slightly by 2.6% versus our previous report, mainly due to a 10% upward revision to our 2026F PBT forecast. 

2Q2026 BUSINESS RESULTS UPDATE: ABOVE EXPECTATIONS ACROSS ALL SEGMENTS 

Total operating income reached VND26.4tn (+48% YoY), with net interest income +35% YoY and non-interest income +95% YoY. PBT reached VND17.4tn, +58% YoY – the highest in VCB's history. During the period, VCB recognized a one-off gain of VND2tn from asset revaluation; excluding this item, core PBT reached VND15.4tn, still up 40% YoY, well above the single-digit growth of the previous six quarters. 

INVESTMENT THESIS 

• Regulatory change on the LDR ratio benefits VCB. Raising the share of State Treasury deposits counted in the LDR from 20% to 50% frees up about VND47tn in additional lending capacity for VCB (+2.7% of current outstanding loans) without the need to mobilize additional deposits. NIM improvement will drive profit growth of 20%/9% in 2026F–2027F, higher than the 2%/4% growth in 2024-2025. 

• Best-in-class asset quality provides a safety buffer against unexpected macro shocks. The NPL coverage ratio reached 280%, significantly higher than the sector average of 84%. 

• TTM P/B valuation is currently around 2.0x, an 8-year low, while profit growth is poised to re-accelerate over the next two years as mentioned above. 

• Catalysts supporting the share price over the next 12 months. A 6.5% private placement to foreign investors, FTSE Emerging Markets ETFs starting to buy VCB shares from September 2026, and a potential reversal of around VND1.3tn in bond provisions.