BSC Navigator | 2026: Macroeconomic – Market Outlook Update in the context of Escalating tensions in the Middle East

The Vietnamese stock market is entering a challenging “stress test” phase as it faces escalating geopolitical tensions. After a period of steady growth, the economic landscape in March 2026 is showing new external shocks, forcing investors to reposition their strategies with greater caution.

Firstly, geopolitical risks are redefining the global cost structure. Escalating tensions in the Middle East, along with new tariff policies from the United States, are exerting direct pressure on supply chains and global energy prices. BSC assesses that this shift is not merely temporary but may establish a “new normal” for inflation and exchange rates, requiring flexible adjustments in domestic monetary policy to safeguard growth momentum.

Secondly, domestic fiscal policy is becoming a key pillar supporting the economy. Amid challenges from external drivers, the Government’s proactive stance through new Resolutions and efforts to accelerate public investment disbursement is creating important growth buffers. Effectively leveraging internal resources alongside tax and fee support policies will be critical to maintaining corporate resilience against shocks from international markets.

Thirdly, the FTSE upgrade roadmap represents a strategic pathway for long-term capital inflows. While market sentiment may face short-term pressure from a risk-off environment, key milestones in the transition toward emerging market status by the end of 2026 remain on track. This is not only a story of foreign capital flows but also a catalyst for improving transparency and liquidity standards, paving the way for a more sustainable growth cycle in Vietnam’s equity market.

Based on a comprehensive assessment of conflict scenarios and policy responses, BSC believes that periods of heightened volatility are precisely when the market filters out the most compelling value investment opportunities. Investors are invited to explore detailed forecasts on VN-Index scenarios, oil price movements, and potential stock portfolios in the full report to build an optimal positioning strategy.