X-Stock | PVS VND 52,300, +15%: Q4 2025 earnings update

EARNINGS UPDATE

Q4 2025 results: PVS recorded net revenue = VND 9,554 billion (-2% YoY, -1% QoQ), NPAT-MI = VND 806 billion (+46% YoY, 135% QoQ). including:

Revenue declined slightly as the M&C segment recorded revenue reached VND 6,321 billion (-12% YoY) due to the high base in Q4 2024 when revenue from offshore wind projects was recognized. In contrast, repair and maintenance services increased by +48% YoY, while FSO/FPSO operations grew by +19% YoY. Gross margin reached 8.0%,  (+5.1 percentage points YoY) supported by the recovery in the M&C segment’s gross margin to (5.6% versus 1.4%) in the same period last year. BSC believes the higher margin was mainly due to cost finalization for ongoing projects, leading to the reversal of provisions booked in previous quarters. For reference, the M&C gross margin in (Q3 2025 was only 0.4%). G&A expenses reached VND 185 billion (-56% YoY) likely reflecting PVS’s reversal of the VND 247 billion land tax provision related to PSB. This is a notable development, suggesting that the port expansion project in former Vung Tau could resume after a one-year delay due to tax-related issues.

For full-year 2025, PVS recorded net revenue of VND 32,556 billion (+37% YoY), NPAT-MI = VND 1,820 billion (+70% YoY).

BSC’S ASSESSMENT

PVS’s 2025 NPAT-MI came in 32% above BSC’s forecast (actual NPAT-MI of VND 1,820 billion versus BSC’s forecast of VND 1,380 billion). The outperformance was mainly driven by: (i) higher-than-expected M&C gross margin (2.7% versus BSC’s forecast of 2.3%), as BSC had expected the profit recognition point to fall in 2026; and (ii) the reversal of the VND 247 billion expense related to PSB’s tax issue (BSC had not expected to be reversed in 2025)

2026 earnings forecast: BSC raises its 2026/2027 revenue forecasts by 3%/0% and its 2026/2027 earnings forecasts by 14%/9% versus the latest report. This reflects a more favorable M&C margin outlook compared with the previous forecast, driven by: (i) the initial recognition of projects related to Block B – O Mon; and (ii) the expected reversal of warranty provisions for previous projects in 2026–2027.