X-Stock | PVT VND 22,450, +11%: Q4 2025 earnings update

EARNINGS UPDATE

1. Q4 2025 results: PVT recorded net revenue of VND 4,480 billion (+37% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 266 billion (+27% YoY). include:

• Revenue growth was mainly driven by: (1) a strong expansion in trading activities, up +200% YoY; and (2) a +26% YoY improvement in transportation services.
• Gross margin narrowed from 17.6% to 15.0% (-2.7 percentage points) due to a change in revenue mix as the trading segment’s revenue contribution increased by +15 percentage points but contributed only 0.8% of gross profit. However, the gross margin of the core seaborne transportation segment improved from 19.7% to 22.1% (+2.4 percentage points) supported by the recovery in time charter rates for dry bulk vessels and chemical tankers, which rose by 35% YoY and 15% YoY, respectively.

2. Full-year 2025 results: PVT recorded net revenue of VND 16,049 billion (+37% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 1,038 billion (-5% YoY). Excluding the non-recurring gain from vessel disposal in 2024, PVT delivered positive earnings growth of +13% YoY.

BSC’S ASSESSMENT

PVT’s 2025 earnings performance was broadly in line with our expectations, with net revenue and NPAT-MI completing 90% and 98% of our forecasts, respectively.

Although revenue increased strongly thanks to the expansion of the trading segment, the segment’s margin remained very low (<1%) resulting in an insignificant contribution to profit. In contrast, the core seaborne transportation segment recorded revenue equivalent to 99% of our forecast, in line with expectations for a recovery in the shipping market in 2H2025, particularly in key segments such as dry bulk and product/chemical tankers.

INDUSTRY AND COMPANY OUTLOOK

1. Industry outlook: Although the shipping market is expected to reach supply-demand balance in 2026F, BSC has observed a clear recovery in time charter rates across key segments, including crude oil tankers, product/chemical tankers, and dry bulk vessels.

2. Company outlook: BSC forecasts PVT’s net revenue and NPAT-MI = VND 15,719 billion (-2% YoY) and VND 1,255 billion (+21% YoY), respectively, corresponding to EPS = VND 2,671/share. This is based on the following assumptions:

• The crude oil transportation segment is expected to grow by +16% YoY, mainly driven by: (1) Dung Quat Refinery (BSR) running above capacity; (2) the full-year contribution from PVT Poseidon(a newly acquired Aframax vessel that has secured a time charter contract for operation in the European market; and PVT Apollo, an Aframax vessel that has been fully depreciated since Q2 2025).
• The dry bulk transportation segment is expected to grow by 24% YoY from a low base in 2025. We expect the recovery in Handysize and Supramax charter rates to (around USD 12,000/day), together with PVT’s fleet having renewed several contracts earlier this year, to help this segment turn profitable in 2026F.
• New vessels acquired in 2025 (mainly during the second half of the year, +17% to total fleet capacity) should be fully reflected in the company’s earnings next year. In addition, we estimate that PVT will invest in four additional vessels amid expectations that secondhand vessel prices will cool down.

In terms of revenue, the -2% YoY mainly reflects the high base effect from the trading segment in 2025. However, the impact on core earnings should be negligible, as the segment’s gross margin is below 1%. We expect to revise up our revenue forecast after reassessing PVT’s 2026F business plan in the coming period.

BSC’S RECOMMENDATION

BSC recommends WATCH on PVT, with a 2026F target price = VND 22,450/share (implying an upside of +11%) as of February 12, 2025, for the following reasons:

• The share price has partly reflected our expectations in the previous report regarding: (1) the recovery in oil tanker and dry bulk freight rates in 2H2025, which should improve fleet utilization efficiency and margins in key transportation segments; and (2) a more positive earnings outlook in 2026F, supported by the full-year contribution from recently acquired vessels and a low earnings base in the previous year.
• We maintain our 2026F forecasts and valuation unchanged from the previous report, with 2026F NPAT-MI of VND 1,255 billion (+21% YoY) and a target EV/EBITDA of 4.0x, as PVT’s earnings performance in late 2025 was in line with our expectations.

Key factors to monitor in the coming period include:

• Geopolitical tensions around the Suez Canal (accounts for an estimated 10–13% of global maritime trade) and the Strait of Hormuz (accounts for around 20% of global daily oil output) as these could affect supply-demand balance and freight rates in the shipping market.
• Time charter rate trends across PVT’s core segments, including crude oil tankers, product/chemical tankers, and dry bulk vessels.
• PVT’s 2026F business plan, which is expected to be announced at the upcoming annual general meeting.