X-Stock | VRE VND 40,100, +10%: Q1 2026 earnings update

EARNINGS UPDATE

Q1 2026 results: VRE recorded net revenue of VND 2,294 billion (+7.6% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 1,606 billion ( +36% YoY). Earnings growth was mainly driven by: (1) a VND 185 billion gain from the disposal of investment properties; and (2) financial income increasing by +34% YoY to VND 836 billion. Performance across the key business segments was as follows:

• The retail mall leasing segment remained stable, with gross margin reaching 56.2%, compared with 54.4% in Q4 2025 and 58.0% in Q1 2025.
• The real estate business remained limited, with net revenue of VND 18 billion (-63% YoY). According to management, the real estate business is expected to begin revenue recognition from Royal Island and Golden Avenue in 2027, and from Vinhomes Can Gio from 2028.

Expansion plan: VRE will begin piloting the Vincom Collection model — a commercial street format — from 2026. Under this model, VRE is still in the trial phase and will collect leasing management fees.

• In 2026, VRE plans to open VCP Dan Phuong, with 25,000 sqm in Q3 2026, equivalent to ~1.3% of its current total commercial floor area, and the J-Town commercial street at the Vinhomes My Lam urban area in (Q4 2026)
• In 2027, the company plans to open a Vincom Mega Mall in Long An and upgrade VCP Cong Hoa into VMM Cong Hoa to optimize operations.
• In 2028, VRE expects to open three to five new retail malls at mega projects such as Vinhomes Can Gio, Vinhomes Co Loa, and Ha Long Xanh.

Overall, VRE has not yet disclosed detailed locations and scale for its new retail mall pipeline. However, we expect its retail gross floor area to increase significantly over the next three years as Vinhomes’ project pipeline continues to expand. In particular, commercial street formats under the Vincom Collection model are expected to be developed in tier-2 markets.

2026 AGM UPDATE: VRE set its 2026 business plan with net revenue of VND 10,132 billion, up +16% YoY, and NPAT-MI of VND 5,375 billion (-17% YoY or up +15% YoY if excluding non-recurring items).This is broadly in line with our forecast. Notably, the AGM approved a cash dividend payment of VND 2,272 billion, equivalent to VND 1,000/share (implying a dividend yield of 3.5%). Management stated that VRE will make efforts to maintain a cash dividend policy in the future.

VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION

Since our latest update report, VRE has outperformed, gaining 31.5% versus a 9.2% increase in the VN-Index. At the current price, VRE is trading at a 2025F EV/EBITDA of 13.6x, broadly in line with its five-year average. As VRE’s core business performance and retail mall expansion plan remain in line with BSC’s expectations, we maintain our WATCH recommendation on VRE with a target price of VND 40,100/share (implying an upside of +10%). In the coming period, we believe construction progress and visitor/homebuyer traffic at Vingroup’s real estate projects will be among the key catalysts for VRE’s investment performance.