X-Stock | ACB VND27,100 +18.9%: Valuation Has Been Priced In

INVESTMENT VIEW

• ACB maintains its position as a leading private bank, supported by: (1) a prudent strategy with superior asset quality, with LLCR reaching 114% in Q1/2026, optimizing the bank’s resilience against risks; and (2) effective efforts to develop its ecosystem, helping secure medium-term growth. Meanwhile, the stock’s valuation has been discounted to a 2026 forward P/B of 1.05x, equivalent to -1.2 standard deviations, making it suitable for investors with a prudent risk appetite. Therefore, BSC upgrades its recommendation on ACB to BUY with a target price of VND27,100/share.
• BSC forecasts 2026 PBT at VND22,272bn (+14% YoY), fulfilling the business plan, supported by: (1) total operating income (TOI) growing 12% YoY, with non-interest income (NFI) leading growth at +14.5% YoY and accounting for 21% of TOI, driven by bancassurance, FX trading, and the investment ecosystem, offsetting slower growth in net interest income (NII) due to pressure from declining NIM; (2) CIR reaching 35%, as ACB is expected to increase strategic investment expenses; and (3) provision expenses declining by 25% YoY, following the completion of provisioning under Decree 86 in 2025, while the NPL ratio is maintained below 1.2%.

Key factors to monitor: (1) the draft amendment to Circular 22/2019/TT-NHNN; and (2) the ownership structure of major shareholder groups.

Q1/2026 EARNINGS OVERVIEW AND COMPARISON WITH BSC’S LATEST REPORT

ACB announced Q1/2026 profit before tax of VND5,368bn (+16.8% YoY, +55% QoQ), completing 24% of its full-year business plan, supported by: (1) total operating income increasing by 13% YoY and completing 23.7% of our forecast, led by positive NFI growth of 23.1% YoY, completing 29.1% of our forecast, thanks to positive contributions from FX fees and fees from the investment ecosystem, while NII increased by 9.9% amid competitive pressure and fulfilled 22.5% of our forecast; (2) optimized operating expenses, with CIR at 32% compared with 34% in Q1/2025; and (3) well-controlled asset quality and the completion of provisioning under Decree 86 in Q4/2025.

Based on Q1/2026 earnings, with NPAT completing 23.8% of BSC’s 2026 estimate, and ACB’s strategic direction, BSC lowers its NPAT forecast by 1% versus the latest update and makes several adjustments, including: (1) raising our TOI forecast by 0.6%, supported by a higher NFI contribution, increasing from 17% to around 21% of TOI, which offsets the slight decline in NII due to pressure from narrowing NIM; and (2) revising CIR to 34.5%, up 1.5 ppts versus our previous forecast, reflecting higher estimated strategic investment expenses. However, we maintain our target price versus the latest report due to a change in the reference timeframe.