X-Stock | PTB VND65,200 +27%: Expected Contribution from Phu Tai Central Life Recognition

INVESTMENT THESIS

• In 2026, BSC expects revenue recognition from the Phu Tai Central Life project to drive PTB’s 16% YoY earnings growth, offsetting slower growth in the wood and stone export segments amid a gradual demand recovery in key export markets. However, the U.S. postponement of additional tariffs, together with Vietnam’s tariff level being comparable to or lower than that of competitors, should help PTB secure its order volume.
• Compared with our previous report, we revise our target P/E multiple from 7.5x to 9.0x due to: (1) a more accurate reflection of PTB’s 16% YoY growth outlook, supported by real estate project recognition, while the tariff environment has also become more stable compared with the previous period from Q2/2025 to Q3/2025; and (2) BSC notes that even during the earnings downturn in 2022–2024, PTB still traded at an average P/E of 9.4x.

EARNINGS UPDATE

Q4/2025 results: Net revenue reached VND2,088bn (+8% YoY), while NPAT-MI reached VND127bn (+39% YoY). Key highlights include:

• Net revenue was mainly driven by the stone segment, which reached VND523bn (+11% YoY), recovering from a low base in the same period last year. The real estate segment recorded revenue of VND65bn (+59% YoY), supported by partial revenue recognition from the Phu Tai Central Life project. Meanwhile, the wood segment reached VND1,132bn (+5% YoY), reflecting weaker demand in export markets amid the impact of reciprocal tariffs.
• NPAT-MI increased by 39% YoY, supported by a 3-ppt YoY improvement in gross margin. This was driven by margin recovery in the stone segment to 19.8%, compared with a loss in the same period last year due to one-off expenses related to mining exploration, and revenue recognition from the real estate project. These factors offset the decline in the wood segment’s gross margin to 21.7%, down 5 ppts YoY, due to tariff cost sharing with customers.

Overall, for full-year 2025, PTB recorded net revenue and NPAT-MI of VND7,297bn (+13% YoY) and VND501bn (+35% YoY), respectively, in line with BSC’s expectations and completing 101% of both our revenue and earnings forecasts in the latest report.