X-Stock | HDB VND32,700 +23%: 4Q2025 Earnings Update

4Q2025 EARNINGS UPDATE

HDB reported consolidated 4Q2025 PBT of VND6.5tn, up 60% YoY. The strong growth was largely in line with expectations, as the bank realized gains from its equity investment in VJC, with nearly VND900bn in profit recognized from investment securities. For 2025, HDB recorded PBT of VND21.3tn, up 27% YoY, equivalent to 101% of our forecast.

Similarly, total operating income reached VND12.3tn in 4Q2025, up 31% YoY, bringing 2025 total operating income to VND42.7tn, up 25% YoY and fulfilling 101% of our forecast.

INVESTMENT VIEW

Overall, HDB’s 4Q2025 and full-year 2025 results were broadly in line with BSC’s previous forecasts, reflecting the bank’s typical seasonal credit growth pattern observed over the past few years. The key highlight in the quarter was the gain from the divestment of its equity investment in VJC, which helped the bank achieve its full-year profit target.

After correcting by more than 10% from its recent peak, HDB’s valuation has become more attractive, with trailing P/B of 1.8x and 2026F P/B of 1.6x. Its growth outlook and ability to sustain superior ROE are key factors supporting a modest valuation premium versus comparable banks in the near term. BSC’s latest 2026F PBT forecast for HDB stands at VND26.4tn, up 24% YoY, corresponding to ROE of 23.9%. However, this forecast may be revised upward after the bank announces its 2026 business plan, which is expected to be relatively ambitious.

The key share price catalyst will be the strategic shareholder issuance plan, which is expected to take place in 2026. In addition, BSC notes that the converted shares from two foreign shareholders, each holding 141.8mn shares, have been transferred via put-through transactions, which should help ease pressure on the share price.

BSC maintains its BUY recommendation, with the latest target price of VND32,700/share.