X-Stock | NT2 VND31,550 +24%: Q4/2025 Earnings and Valuation Update

Detailed report
2026–2027 BUSINESS OUTLOOK

1. BSC expects NT2’s full-year 2026 Qc ratio to reach 95%, down 5 ppts from 2025 but still around 9 ppts higher than the normal level. In BSC’s view, gas-fired power plants are likely to continue to maintain a high Qc base, supported by the policy direction under Resolution 70-NQ/TW, which emphasizes prioritizing the mobilization of domestic gas sources for thermal power plants.
2. NT2 is secured in terms of gas supply for 2026–2027, as PV GAS has started exploiting additional gas from the Su Tu Trang 2B field. In addition, according to NOAA, the probability of El Nino is forecast to increase significantly from May 2026, supporting higher thermal power mobilization. On this basis, power output in 2026–2027 is expected to reach 3.7 billion kWh, up 20% compared with 2025.
3. Full-year depreciation may decline by VND 485 billion, from VND 550 billion to VND 65 billion, supporting gross profit growth. This depreciation reduction does not affect the electricity price calculation formula until NT2 renews its PPA after 2032.
4. Dividend yield currently stands at 2.7% and is expected to increase to 5.8%, with dividend per share rising from VND 700/share to VND 1,500/share, supported by business operations recovering to normalized levels and the company having no long-term debt.

 

2026–2027 FORECASTS

• In 2026, revenue and NPAT-MI are forecast to reach VND 8,877 billion (+14% YoY) and VND 1,061 billion (+6% YoY), respectively.
• In 2027, revenue and NPAT-MI are forecast to reach VND 9,083 billion (+2% YoY) and VND 1,090 billion (+3% YoY), respectively.

We revise up our 2026 revenue and earnings forecasts by 17% and 42%, respectively, compared with our previous report, based on the company’s additional gas supply from the Su Tu Trang 2B field, which was announced in December 2025. This is expected to lift power output by 16% compared with our previous forecast.

 

RECOMMENDATION

We revise up our target price by 16% compared with our previous report and maintain our BUY recommendation on NT2, with a 2026 target price of VND 31,550/share, implying an upside of 24%, including a 2.7% dividend yield, based on the reference price on January 23, 2026. Our valuation is based on a blended FCFF discounted cash flow and EV/EBITDA methodology.

 

EARNINGS UPDATE

Q4/2025 results: Net revenue reached VND 2,367 billion (+33% YoY, +23% QoQ), while NPAT-MI reached VND 421 billion (+465% YoY, +97% QoQ).

Full-year 2025 results: Net revenue reached VND 7,803 billion (+31% YoY), while NPAT-MI reached VND 999 billion, 12 times higher than the previous year.

Q4/2025 EARNINGS ANALYSIS

• Power output increased by 22% YoY. Specifically, contracted output (Qc) reached 962 million kWh (+81% YoY), while there was no output on the competitive market (Qm). Accordingly, the Qc ratio reached 100%, compared with only 67% in the same period last year.
• Selling prices increased by 9% YoY, supported by: (1) an improved Qc ratio; and (2) the company recognizing one-off revenue of around VND 90 billion from forest environmental service fees.
• In addition, the company’s machinery has been fully depreciated, reducing total depreciation expenses from VND 170 billion to VND 40 billion.

These factors lifted gross margin to 20.2%, up 15 ppts YoY.

Net financial profit reached VND 34 billion (+36% YoY), supported by the company’s effective use of idle cash deposits.

 

BSC’S ASSESSMENT

Full-year 2025 earnings completed 105% and 137% of BSC’s previous revenue and NPAT-MI forecasts, respectively. The company’s earnings increased more strongly than expected thanks to:

Contracted power output (Qc) being mobilized below the assigned plan, resulting in compensation of around VND 300 billion, which directly increased full-year profit.

Recognition of VND 90 billion in revenue from forest environmental service fees, which was initially expected to be recognized in 2026.

The company accelerating its interest-rate spread activities by increasing cash deposits and funding working capital with short-term debt at lower interest rates.

As a result, we revise up our 2026 revenue and earnings forecasts by 17% and 42%, respectively, compared with our previous report.