X-Alpha | PHR 73,500 +15% One-off compensaton income

BSC RECOMMENDATION

BSC recommends BUY on PHR with a 2026 fair value of VND 73,500/share, implying an upside of 15% versus the closing price on June 10, 2026, based on the SOTP valuation method, with a target P/E of 7.x for the rubber and wood segments. Accordingly, 2026 forward EPS is estimated at VND 12,226/share. BSC issues a BUY recommendation amid:

• Strong core earnings supported by higher rubber prices.
• Extraordinary income recognition, with the key recognition period starting from Q2/2026.

2026–2027 BUSINESS OUTLOOK

• PHR is expected to benefit from the strong increase in global rubber prices. The average rubber selling price in 2026 is expected to reach VND 54 million/tonne (+10% YoY).
• Extraordinary income from land compensation is expected to be recorded in 2026. In 2026–2027, BSC expects PHR to record VND 1,619 billion, six times higher than in 2024, and VND 1,766 billion (+9% YoY), respectively, from the VSIP III Industrial Park and Bac Tan Uyen Thaco Industrial Park projects.
• 2026 EARNINGS FORECAST

In 2026, BSC forecasts PHR to record net revenue of VND 1,969 billion (+10% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 1,694 billion (+254% YoY), equivalent to forward EPS of VND 12,231/share. This is based on the assumptions that revenue from the rubber & wood segments will reach VND 1,849 billion (+10% YoY), while revenue from the industrial park & industrial park services segments will reach VND 120 billion (+7% YoY).

In 2026, PHR is expected to record a sharp increase in net other income to VND 1,619 billion, mainly from compensation cash flow related to the Thaco Industrial Park and VSIP III projects. Gross margin is forecast to reach 30% (+4 ppts YoY), mainly driven by higher rubber prices.