X-Stock HPG 32,700 +53% Steel Forged in Fire

DETAILED Q2 2026 BUSINESS RESULTS UPDATE

At the end of Q2 2026, HPG recorded net revenue of VND 55,159bn (+54% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 6,371bn (+50% YoY). Key highlights were as follows:

• Steel segment revenue reached VND 53,436bn (+59% YoY), mainly driven by sales volume of 3.8 million tonnes (+30% YoY) and higher steel selling prices. Specifically: (1) HRC/CRC sales volume reached nearly 2.0 million tonnes (+64% YoY), as tariff barriers on HRC imports from China began to take effect; (2) construction steel sales volume reached 1.3 million tonnes (+2% YoY), supported by the recovery of the real estate market; and (3) selling prices across steel products generally increased by 8–10%, partly due to higher transportation costs amid rising fuel prices. Construction steel prices increased more strongly (+16% YoY), supported by the domestic real estate market, while HRC prices rose 11% YoY following the introduction of anti-circumvention measures on HRC in early Q2.

• Agriculture segment revenue reached VND 1,523bn (-32% YoY), mainly due to lower commercial hog sales volume following major renovations at Minh Duc Farm in Q3 2025 and the Company’s decision to retain piglets for herd rebuilding.

• Gross margin reached 19.0% (+0.7 ppts YoY), supported by higher sales volume and selling prices. Compared with Q1 2026, gross margin improved by 3.2 ppts, mainly driven by higher steel prices, with construction steel prices up 9% QoQ and HRC/CRC prices up 13% QoQ.

• Interest expense reached VND 1,520bn (+246% YoY), due to: (1) higher borrowings to support business operations; and (2) the commencement of operations at the Dung Quat 2.2 project.

• In addition, selling expenses reached VND 1,718bn (+108% YoY), mainly due to higher transportation and export-related costs amid rising fuel prices.

Overall, NPAT-MI increased 50% YoY, mainly driven by a 30% YoY increase in sales volume and higher selling prices.

2026F–2027F FORECAST UPDATE

Compared with our previous report, BSC has broadly maintained its forecasts.

For 2026, BSC forecasts HPG to record net revenue of VND 221,570bn (+42% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 27,911bn (+81% YoY), equivalent to 2026F EPS of approximately VND 3,306/share. Compared with our previous report, BSC raises its construction steel price assumption by 1% and lowers its HRC selling price assumption by 1% to better reflect developments in 1H2026. In addition, BSC raises its selling expense forecast, offset by lower G&A expenses. As a result, our earnings forecast remains broadly unchanged.

For 2027, BSC forecasts net revenue of VND 239,871bn (+8% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 32,576bn (+17% YoY), equivalent to 2027F EPS of approximately VND 3,858/share. Compared with our previous report, BSC lowers its NPAT forecast by 6%, mainly due to a 1.2% downward revision to our HRC selling price assumption under a more conservative view.