X-Stock | MWG 102,500 +40%: CONTINUING THE PRICING STORY

VALUATION

BSC maintains  a STRONG BUY  recommendation on MWG stock with a 1-year target price of 102,500 VND/share (upside +40% compared to the closing price on 24/09/2026) with a partial valuation method (SOTP), corresponding to an adjustment of -2% compared to the latest target price (link) to reflect a higher interest rate environment than at the time of valuation and low liquidity pressure impacting the target PE of business segments and increasing discounts for the group model.

INVESTMENT THESIS (Refer to the previous report _BCT)

I. BSC expects MWG's 2026-2027 profit to grow +76%/+18%YoY, exceeding the 2026 profit plan by 30% thanks to grasping the industry shift trend and optimized operating model, based on (i) the profit pillar is DMX, (ii) financial profit is expected to grow over +20%LFL and (iii) the growth pillar is BHX (+173%/+50%YoY) entering the new growth cycle 2026-2030.

Attractive valuation with PE FW 2026-2027 = 8-9 (times) – according to BSC, the current valuation estimate reflects the valuation of DMX (pre-IPO price) + cash and ~30% of BHX's valuation based on the value at the 2024 strategic capital sale, which does not reflect the prospects of all business segments.

II. Maintain long-term growth expectations with a CAGR of 2026-2030 of >15%/year: expect a new growth period and opportunities to revalue MWG through IPOs DMX and BHX and potential from the e-commerce market.

• DMX (including Erablue): breaking the prejudice of saturated industries with financial pillars - utilities, green machine electrician services, Super app and Erablue are expected to be the Indonesian version of DMX - in line with the investment appetite for sustainable growth, regular cash dividends (minimum 50% of net profit);
• BHX has room to increase its market share from 4.1% (2025E) to 10% (2030F), thanks to accelerating the opening of an effective store model and conquering the target of IPO 2028 - in line with investment appetite for high growth;

CATALYST: Expects the distribution of profits to shareholders to continue to increase compared to 2026 (cash dividends, treasury shares, ...) based on 2026 business results.

RISKS: Pressure from consumer demand is less positive than expected, affecting BHX's profit expectations and store opening activities; volatility risks come from liquidity and the trend of "IPO of the stock market.