X-Alpha | HAH 58,900 +12%: Positioned for a Fleet Expansion Cycle

VALUATION VIEW

Based on the P/E valuation method, BSC maintains a HOLD recommendation on HAH shares, with a target price of VND 58,900/share, implying an upside of 12% from the latest closing price of VND 52,500/share, based on the following rationale:

The target P/E of 8.7x reflects HAH’s historical 5-year average valuation, a period during which (1) the company actively expanded its fleet and (2) container time-charter rates established a new baseline.

2026F – 2027F OUTLOOK

• Elevated time-charter rates offset easing spot freight rates: The charter rate for 1,700 TEU vessels reached USD 35,059/day (+34% YTD). Contract renewals are expected to drive charter revenue growth of +29%/+9% YoY in 2026F/2027F.
• Fleet capacity to increase by 73% by 2028: Total fleet capacity (including vessels owned by associated companies) increases from 35,800 TEU to 62,000 TEU, supported by four 3,000 TEU vessels (owned by HAH) and two 7,100 TEU vessels (through Hai An Green, in which HAH holds a 40% stake).

2026F BUSINESS PERFORMANCE FORECAST

BSC forecasts revenue and NPAT attributable to parent shareholders in 2026F at VND 5,439 bn (+7% YoY) and VND 1,231 bn (+2% YoY), respectively; in 2027F, the respective figures are projected at VND 5,487 bn (+1% YoY) and VND 1,332 bn (+8% YoY), based on the following assumptions:

• Port operations: 2026F revenue +7% YoY as throughput declines 15% (with part of the volume shifted to Nam Hai Dinh Vu) but average rates increase 25%.
• Shipping: 2026F revenue +6% YoY; the time-charter segment +29% offsets the self-operated shipping segment -6% (volume -21% due to vessel transfers to the charter segment, freight rates +20%).
• Profitability: 2026F gross profit margin reaches 39.0% (+0.4 ppt); however, the non-controlling interests ratio increases to 18.5-20% and Hai An Green incurs losses in the initial period, resulting in only modest growth in NPAT attributable to parent shareholders. In 2027F, NPAT attributable to parent shareholders +8% thanks to contributions from Hai An Green and a slight decrease in interest expenses.

RISK: Prolonged conflict in the Middle East may keep energy prices elevated, affecting the company’s fuel input costs for vessel operations