X-Alpha | TCB 28,300 +32%: From financial investor to strategic partner

VALUATION VIEW 

BSC maintains its BUY rating on TCB with a target price of 28,300 VND/share (upside of +32% vs. the closing price of VND 21,350/share), based on three methods: P/B (50%, target P/B 1.6x), P/E (30%, target P/E 10.0x) and residual income (20%). The target price does not yet reflect a stake sale to a strategic investor. 

INVESTMENT THESIS 

• The foreign strategic shareholder story is back. The remaining foreign ownership room of about 7.5 ppt, together with Warburg Pincus's 7.9% stake, paves the way for a sale of 15% or more of the bank's capital. Based on precedent, stake sales to strategic shareholders typically lift market sentiment and support the share price. 

• A “rare gem” of the banking sector. Projected 2027 ROAA of 2.2% remains among the highest in the sector; TCB leads in wealth management (AUM of VND 792 trillion, +54% YoY) and the fee ecosystem (9M26 fee income +40% YoY); its CAR of 15.0% leaves room to raise operating leverage, while peers of similar size have relatively low ratios of 10-12%. 

• Positive 2027F earnings outlook. BSC forecasts 2027F PBT of VND 44.8 trillion (+17.7% YoY), with NIM holding at around 3.6%. The 9M26 foundation is solid: PBT reached VND 28.9 trillion (+23.7% YoY), fulfilling 76% of the full-year forecast; Q3/2026 alone reached VND 10.4 trillion (+26% YoY), exceeding the VND 10 trillion mark for the first time. Quarterly NIM recovered slightly for the second consecutive quarter to 3.5%, 9M26 fee income rose 40% YoY and provision expenses fell 30.5% YoY. 

• Attractive valuation. TCB is trading at a 2026F P/B of about 1.14x, roughly 16% below its 5-year average P/B (1.36x). 

2026F-2027F EARNINGS FORECAST 

BSC raises its 2026F/2027F PBT forecasts by 2.9%/2.4% to VND 38.1/44.8 trillion (+17.0%/+17.7% YoY) on stronger-than-expected fee income and higher credit growth, offsetting a lower NIM (3.61%/3.62%).