Macro & Market Feb 2019__Fluctuated movements, waiting for supportive news_20190306

Macroeconomics
• PMI dropped to 51.2 from 51.9 of the previous month, and lower than the 2018’s average of 53.7 points.
• Total retail sales of consumer goods and services in 2 months were estimated at VND 793.8 trillion, an increase of 12.2% compared to the same period last year.
• In 2 months, registered FDI increased 57.8% compared to the same period last year while disbursed FDI increased 9.8% YoY. FDI capital focuses on processing, manufacturing sector and real estate sector.
• The interbank USD exchange rate fluctuated in the range of 23,240 - 23,265 VND/USD, a slight increase compared to the range of 23,200 - 23,255 VND /USD in January. The interbank interest rates at all terms decreased in the first 2 weeks and rebounded in the last week of February.

Stock Market
• HSX recovered positively while HNX recovered slightly. VN-Index officially increased by 54.8 points compared to the end of last month (+ 6.02% MoM), (+ 8.18% YtD) and HNX-Index increased 2.98 points (+ 2.9% MoM), (+ 1.56% YtD).
• Average liquidity on 2 exchanges increased by 54.28% compared to January 2019, and increased to VND 5,008 billion/session, equivalent to nearly USD 215.8 million/session.
• In February, foreign investors net bought on the HSX with VND 2860 billion, net sold VND 744 billion on the HNX.
• P/E of Vn-Index increased to 16.18 respectively + 6.06% MoM, + 8.49% YtD while P/E of HNX-Index recovered slightly to 8.67 respectively + 1.74% MoM, -1.26% YtD. The P/E of the VN-Index slipped to 9th place and the HNX-Index continued to hold the 19th position in Asia.

Market Outlook in March
The trend of pulling and increasing slightly is expected to continue in February when the sentiment after the holiday still dominates. However, when foreign investors continue to maintain the current net buying momentum, domestic investors will soon catch up with the market. We believe that VN-Index will continue to maintain a slight upward momentum towards 940 - 960 points in February. In February, BSC offers two scenarios as follows:
• In positive case, VN-Index will increase to close to 960 points with the rotation of large stocks. Liquidity remained at medium level and tended to increase gradually at the end of the month.
• In negative cases, VN-Index may return to check 900 points if there is information from the world.

Recommended stocks:
• The sectors and stocks are evaluated positively in the 2019 Sector Outlook Report (link) and (Link);
• Stocks of Banking and Finance have strong improvement, stock groups benefit from trade agreements and production shift from trade war; Stocks benefit from recovering raw material prices and oil prices;
• High defensive stocks such as Electricity, Information Technology - Post, Retail consumption have high growth and dividends;
• In the long term, BSC's recommended stocks will be mentioned in quarter IV sector strategic reports (Link), Stocks with good changes are recommended in the weekly Investment consultant Report and Sector/company update reports (link).