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Investment Recommendation

GVR_NEUTRAL_TP 23,600_Upside 17%_Potentials from the land_BSC Company Update

Báo cáo doanh nghiệp

  • Date

    22/07/2021

  • Security code

    GVR

  • Company

    Viet Nam Rubber Group

  • Language

    Tiếng Anh

  • Number of Downloads

    276

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Detailed report

Valuation
  •  BSC maintains recommendation for GVR stock with a target price of VND 23,624 (upside 18%) based on a partial valuation method with profits mainly coming from (1) rubber, timber, (2) industrial parks. and (3) divestment. We adjust our target price compared to the old report due to the update of GVR's new projections and profit from divestment.
 
Forecast of business performance
  •  We forecast that, in 2020, GVR's revenue will reach VND 19,610 billion (-1% YoY), NPAT = VND 3,862 billion (+16% YoY), equivalent to EPS = VND 966/share. In 2021, BSC forecasts that GVR's revenue will reach VND 23,185 billion (+18% YoY), EAT = VND 3,683 billion (-4.6% YoY), equivalent to EPS = VND 921/share.
 
Investment thesis
  •  Converting rubber land into industrial zones and residential projects is the main strategy of GVR. Projects include (1) 6,361 hectares of selfdeveloped andupcoming industrial parks, (2) 5,000 hectares of land intended to self-develop industrial zones from 2025 onwards and (3) more than 23,000 hectares of converted land for investors. other or infrastructure projects. GVR will record compensation for transferring rubber land into Long Thanh airport in November 2020, recording a profit of VND 1080 billion (21% of PBT)
  • The recovery of rubber prices supported the rubber profit segment. BSC expects 2021-2025: rubber output +5% yoy, selling price +10% yoy, rubber industrial products: output +5% yoy, selling price +10% yoy.
  • Divestment of subsidiaries. BSC estimates that GVR will book a profit from the divestment of SIP and GVR at about VND 979 billion (19% of PBT).
Investment risk
  • Projects with delayed approval of legal procedures took longer to come into operation than we expected.
 

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