BSC_Vietnam Macro Market Outlook 2024_EN_Opportunities overcome Challenges_20240116

Looking into the macroeconomic outlook for 2024, BSC forecasts GDP growth at 5.8% and 6.3%, CPI at 3.5% and 3.02% for 2024 and 2023, respectively. The operating interest rates are expected to be 4.5% and 4% in 2023. The exchange rate is projected to remain stable within the range of 23,577 - 23,832 throughout the year. Money supply (M2) and credit growth are estimated at 10%, 13%, and 13% to 15%, respectively.

 

In terms of the stock market in 2024, the VN-Index is expected to maintain the recovery trend from 2023. Factors contributing to this include positive macroeconomic and business performance, continued low-interest rate environment, individual investors driving the market, and the KRX system deployment improving market liquidity. Optimistic signals about potential market upgrades from FTSE are also expected to drive market growth in 2024.

 

Regarding investment themes in 2024, sectors like construction materials, seafood, utilities, retail, textiles, chemicals, and tire manufacturing are expected to show good profit growth. Four investment themes to watch in 2024 include FDI growth areas such as industrial zones (PHR, SZC), the logistics sector, public investment (LCG), and recovery in exports for textiles (TNG) and seafood (VHC). Reasonably priced stocks in the banking sector (TCB, STB) and others (HSG, NLG, PNJ, MWG, etc.) are also highlighted.

 

For detailed prospects in various sectors and stocks of interest in 2024, refer to the "Vietnam Sector Outlook 2024" report.