Macro & Market Outlook 2025_Innovation 2.0 - Challenges and Opportunities

Based on the assessment of international and domestic factors, we base our macroeconomic and market scenario as follows:

MACRO 2025
In 2025, the exchange rate pressure will gradually decrease after the first quarter, creating conditions for growth support policies. BSC forecasts GDP growth in 2 scenarios respectively: 6.5% and 7.4%, CPI at 4.4% and 3.2%, Operating interest rates at 4.5+% and 4.5-%, Import-export at 7% and 17%; FDI disbursement at 24 and 25 billion USD.

STOCK MARKET 2025
Stock market in 2025, VN-Index continues to accumulate sideways in Q1 and Q2; surpasses the 1,300 point barrier and maintains the upward momentum in Q3 and Q4: (1) Macroeconomics and business results of enterprises are in a positive growth cycle; (2) Low interest rate environment remains, high credit growth; (3) Individual investors continue to be the main driving force and foreign capital flows improve thanks to the possibility of upgrading from FTSE in September 2025. VN-Index forecasts the base scenario to 1,436 points (+13%), EPS +18% and P/E 14.2 times.

INVESTMENT THEMES 2025
Investment topics to note in 2025, 4 topics are evaluated as outstanding and monitored for investment: (1) Banking industry; (2) Electricity - Fertilizer - Gas; (3) Steel - Real estate and (4) Import-export - Logistics - Retail, see details in the report “Vietnam Sector Outlook 2025”.