BSC Navigator | 2026: Time will tell

Is the Vietnamese stock market currently experiencing its fifth bull cycle, with several historical factors converging? 

Historically, the four major bull cycles of the Vietnamese stock market—2005–2007, 2009–2010, 2016–2018, and 2020–2022—have all been associated with significant turning points in the economy. The next phase of the current bull cycle is anticipated to commence in 2025. As we enter the post-2025 period, the market is converging on several conditions that are conducive to the emergence of its fifth bull cycle. These conditions include a significantly improved macroeconomic foundation, the expansion phase of corporate profits, and the simultaneous activation of domestic and foreign capital flows.

Firstly, the Vietnamese economy is experiencing a period of higher and more stable growth compared to previous cycles. While previous growth cycles heavily relied on short-term monetary easing measures, the current cycle is supported by a proactive and flexible approach. This approach involves close coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, with the objective of achieving medium- and long-term growth. A series of new resolutions and policies are gradually removing institutional bottlenecks, unlocking social resources, and creating new growth opportunities in various sectors, including digital transformation, technology and data, high-tech supply chains, renewable energy, green economy, logistics, and infrastructure.

Secondly, overall market returns are projected to grow by approximately 17% annually during the 2026 period, surpassing the long-term average. The primary drivers of this growth are the credit recovery cycle, the improvement of domestic consumption, and a new wave of investment in technology, infrastructure, and energy. Previous cycles have demonstrated that periods of accelerated public investment often coincide with periods of expanding corporate profits, particularly in the banking, construction, materials, and industrial park sectors.

Thirdly, domestic capital flows are increasingly playing a pivotal role in the market. The rapid expansion of the middle class, coupled with the growing popularity of stock market investment, is reflected in the number of new accounts opened and the high level of liquidity maintained in recent years. Furthermore, the upgrade to emerging market status not only attracts international capital but also promotes market restructuring towards increasing the proportion of institutional investors, raising corporate governance standards, and developing new investment products, thereby strengthening the role of the stock market as a medium- and long-term capital mobilization channel for the economy.

Based on a combination of macroeconomic factors, policies, profits, and cash flow, the Vietnamese stock market is poised to enter its fifth bull cycle in history, characterized by a more mature, sustainable, and long-term outlook compared to previous cycles.