Week 05_VN-Index surpasses SMA lines, with positive expectations for the new year

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
S&P 500 sets new record amid optimism over new Trump’s presidency
Investors continue to pour into the Artificial Intelligence sector after President Trump announced the Stargate joint venture, with ambitions to invest at least USD 500 billion in the U.S. AI infrastructure. The upward trend was reinforced after the President’s speech at the World Economic Forum, where he called for an immediate interest rate cut. The DXY index and bond yields saw a slight decline.
- U.S. stock indices rebounded with an average increase of 2.1%, EU600 +2%, Nikkei 225 +4.1%; CSI 300 +1.8%.
- The commodity index dropped by 0.8%, oil prices -3.9%, metals (Aluminum -2.1%, Nickel -2%, Zinc -3.1%), while gold prices rose by 2.1%.
- The DXY index and U.S. 10-year bond yields both declined by 1.1% and 0.16%, respectively, after weeks of gains.
The new U.S. President signed approximately 200 executive orders on his first day back in the White House; however, no tariff-related orders have been issued. Just before the inauguration, Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico to push the two countries into earlier negotiations on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement. Similarly, Trump is considering a 10% tariff on China starting February 1, 2025. He is also weighing a comprehensive tariff plan on all trade partners, aiming to generate USD 1 trillion to offset the tax cuts in 2025. The trade war has yet to begin, but concerns continue to loom over global trade prospects.
Key economic data to watch next week include the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index, U.S. Durable Goods Orders, Australia’s CPI, interest rate decisions and monetary policy minutes from the Bank of Canada, the ECB, and the Federal Reserve, as well as the initial GDP release and U.S. unemployment claims.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
Expectations for a more positive trend in Lunar Year 2025
The VN-Index consolidated sideways and adjusted in the first three sessions of the week but managed to rise in the last two trading sessions, recording a 1.2% increase along with a 12% increase in liquidity. The late-week movement was partly affected by domestic ETF restructuring activities; however, it brings hope for investors for a brighter new year.
- Positive earnings results helped banking stocks secure 5 out of the 6 top positions contributing the most points to the index (6.5 points).
- Sector performance improved, with 12 out of 18 sectors increasing. Communications and retail increased by over 3%, while oil & gas, real estate, and insurance declined between 0.2% and 3.4%.
- After strong net selling of USD 182 million last week, foreign investors returned as net buyers with USD 5 million.
Attending, speaking, and engaging in policy dialogues at the World Economic Forum session "Breakthrough into the Future: Vietnam’s Vision for Innovation and Global Role," the Prime Minister delivered a strong message on breakthrough development policies to seize opportunities in the era of science and technology, aiming for Vietnam to become a developed, high-income economy by 2045. Resolution 57 on strengthening national science, technology, and data development is expected to be completed by June 2025. Vietnam remains steadfast in its independent foreign policy, balancing relations with the U.S. and China. It is also enhancing cooperation with the U.S. in aerospace and high technology to reduce the trade surplus. The country is committed to achieving net-zero emissions and accelerating green transformation and sustainable production.
Key stock market-related policies will be issued by the U.S. President during the holiday period. After two weeks of buy recommendations, investors should carefully monitor market developments and be ready to accelerate trading when opportunities arise in the week after the Lunar New Year.