BSC Radar | 10.11 – 14.11: Update on new tariff policies after the reciprocal tariffs take effect (2)

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
Fears of an AI bubble engulf global stock markets
Major institutions such as Goldman Sachs, the IMF, and the Bank of England (BOE) have issued warnings about a potential new bubble in the AI sector and the risk of global contagion. Along with growing concerns over a possible U.S. government shutdown and the lack of economic data, the U.S. technology sector experienced its worst trading week since the April tariff event. Most stock indices also reversed into declines.
- U.S. stock indices fell an average of 2%, EU600 -1.2%, Nikkei 225 -4.1%, while CSI 300 moved in the opposite direction (+0.8%).
- The commodity index decreased -0.5%, mainly due to oil (-2.0%), metals (copper -2.9%, iron ore -4.7%), and agricultural products (rubber -3%, cotton -3.1%, rice -2.5%); in contrast, natural gas rose +4.6%.
- The DXY index remained at 99.6, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.03% to 4.1%.
On November 6, the United States announced a 12-month suspension of port fees for China, effective from November 10. This was part of the summit agreement reached between the two countries at the end of October. Conversely, China announced a temporary suspension of export control measures on several strategic materials, including rare earths, battery materials, and superhard materials. In addition, China resumed soybean and timber imports from certain U.S. companies. These are positive developments, marking a turning point in U.S.–China trade relations after a period of tension, helping to ease global trade pressures to some extent.
CPI, new loans, M2, industrial production index, and retail sales in China; industrial production index and monthly GDP in the U.K.; industrial production index and the EU finance ministers’ meeting; and U.S. jobless claims, CPI, PPI, and retail sales are the key data to watch next week.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
VN-Index extends its 4-week losing streak, breaking below the psychological threshold of 1,600 points
VN-Index decreased by 2.5%, extending its 4 consecutive weeks of decline, along with a 2% drop in liquidity. This is one of the longest declines of the year, similar to the downtrend in early April following new tariff information from the United States. Although large-cap stocks were mixed, the weakness of the banking group dragged the index down, losing the psychological level of 1,600 points.
- While VIC contributed 8 points of increase, VHM alone took nearly 7 points of decline from the market. The market still showed divergence even during a strong down session, but the broad-based decline in the banking sector had a significant impact on the index.
- The number of declining sectors expanded to 16 from 9 sectors last week. Retail, Travel & Leisure, and Personal & Household Goods dropped from 5%–6.5%, while Insurance and Utilities were the only two sectors to increase.
- Foreign investors continued to net sell USD 80 million compared to USD 59 million in the previous week.
In October and the first 10 months of the year, the industrial production index rose 10.8% YoY and 9.2% YoY; total retail sales of goods and consumer services increased 7.2% and 9.3% YoY; exports and imports rose 17.2% and 17.4% YoY, with a trade surplus of USD 19.6 billion; state budget investment capital rose 29.1% and 27.8% YoY; registered and disbursed FDI increased 15.6% and 8.8% YoY; budget revenue and expenditure for the first 10 months increased 30.8% (equal to 111% of the annual estimate) and 32% YoY; international visitors reached 17.2 million arrivals, up 21.5% YoY. CPI in October increased 3.25% YoY, and the average CPI for the first 10 months was 3.27%; the USD exchange rate rose 3.62% compared to December.
Macroeconomic indicators remain positive even though some sectors are showing signs of slowing down; macro stability continues to be the foundation toward the goal of achieving economic growth above 8% in 2025.
The market is facing the risk of a short-term correction; investors should consider reducing exposure during rebound sessions and wait for a new equilibrium point before reopening positions.