Week 19_Impact of EVN’s Average Retail Electricity Price Hike in May 2025

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
Markets Sustain Recovery Momentum Following U.S.–UK Trade Agreement Announcement
The preliminary trade deal between the United States and the United Kingdom marks the first notable breakthrough since the U.S. imposed its new tariff regime, providing support for the ongoing rebound in global equity markets.
U.S. equity indices have gained an average of 7% this month, trimming year-to-date losses to just 3.7%.
- In the five trading sessions ending May 9, U.S. stock indices moved sideways. Elsewhere, EU600 rose by +0.2%, Nikkei 225 gained +1.5%, and China’s CSI 300 added +1.0%.
- The commodity index rose by +1%, driven by energy (oil +4.5%) and metals (gold +2.7%, silver +1.8%, tin +7.0%, lead +1.9%), while several agricultural commodities declined (wheat -2%, cotton -4%, potatoes -8%).
- The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) ended its multi-week downtrend, rising +0.4% to above 100 points, alongside a modest increase in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.38%. 
At its May policy meeting, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.5%. While some Fed officials expressed concerns that the tariff scenario could trigger stagflation, the majority of members agreed that the Fed is well-positioned to remain patient and adjust policy as needed. Despite a strong trade surplus dragging Q1 GDP growth to -0.3%, the Fed maintains its view that the U.S. economy continues to expand at a solid pace, supported by a resilient labor market. Investors currently assign a 20% probability of a rate cut in June and 56% in July, with expectations for three rate cuts by the Fed in 2025.
Key data to watch next week:China: M2 money supply, new loan issuance, retail sales, industrial production. Australia: Unemployment rate. UK: GDP growth. U.S.: CPI, retail sales, jobless claims.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
Broad-Based Market Rebound Post-Holiday
The VN-Index surged by 3.3%, with liquidity up by 22% following the holiday period. However, trading value remained at average levels, comparable to the week prior to the holiday. While sector rotation was clearly visible and foreign investors returned to net buying, these factors were not strong enough to drive a full recovery in growth-oriented flows to match the index’s rebound.
- VIC-related stocks maintained solid upward momentum, accounting for 34% of the VN-Index’s gain. Large-cap stocks that had seen significant declines recently—such as GVR, FPT, GAS, and BSR—also recovered well.
- The market posted broad-based gains, with all 18 sectors advancing. Notable sector rotation was observed, with real estate, oil & gas, and chemicals posting gains of over 8%.
- Foreign investors turned net buyers, with a net inflow of USD 49 million after several weeks of net selling.
As of May 9, 1,116 listed companies across the three exchanges had released earnings results. Net profit (PAT) growth stood at +24.1% YoY for the overall market, +13.3% YoY for HOSE, and +17.2% YoY for VN30. This reflects a cyclical slowdown from Q4/2024 YoY, but still marks a 2.5x increase compared to Q1/2024 YoY. The uptrend in both quarterly and annual earnings growth YoY continues to strengthen after bottoming out in Q1/2023. By sector, Retail, Real Estate, Utilities, Chemicals, Information Technology, Basic Resources, and Personal & Household Goods reported strong Q1 YoY earnings growth of 72.8%, 56.3%, 48.7%, 37.9%, 36.4%, 28.1%, and 27.8%, respectively—well above the market average, with clear divergence as 6 out of 19 sectors posted negative growth.
With the upcoming National Assembly session and ongoing trade negotiations, the market's next move—particularly as the VN-Index approaches key resistance levels—remains highly sensitive. The market is fragmented, liquidity remains limited, and momentum is concentrated in a few large-cap names, so investors are advised to maintain a moderate portfolio allocation and adopt a flexible short-term strategy.