Week 22_Forecast of FTSE Vietnam Index and MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Constituents – Q2/2025

GLOBAL STOCK MARKET
Stock markets fluctuated on tariff-related news
The FOMC minutes indicating a possible delay in rate cuts had less impact on the stock market than tariff-related news. Prime Minister Trump announced the postponement of the 50% tariff on the EU to July 9, and news that a federal court blocked retaliatory tariffs had a major impact on market fluctuations.
- U.S. stock indexes rose an average of 1.6% over the 5 trading sessions through May 29; EU600 +1.1%, Nikkei 225 +2.3%; CSI 300 -0.8%.
- Commodity index -1.7%, with broad-based declines across sectors: energy (oil -0.7%, gas -5.3%), metals (gold -1.9%, copper -3.8%, tin -3.7%), agriculture (coffee -3.5%, rubber -4.4%, cocoa -10.8%).
- DXY index +0.3%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell -0.1% to 4.43%.
The May FOMC minutes remained cautious amid economic uncertainty and inflation risks. Recent indicators show the economy growing at a solid pace. Job growth is strong and unemployment remains low; inflation has eased but remains high. The Committee does not believe that cutting rates is appropriate until there is greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%. The Fed will slow quantitative tightening starting June 1, allowing only $25 billion of Treasuries to mature per month without reinvestment, down from $60 billion previously. The Committee will continue to monitor data and stands ready to adjust its stance if risks hinder goal attainment. Markets have since revised expectations, projecting a Fed rate cut beginning in September, per FedWatch.
UK, EU, and U.S. PMIs; EU CPI; Australia GDP; interest rate decisions and monetary meeting minutes from the Bank of Canada and ECB; U.S. nonfarm payrolls, jobless claims, and unemployment rate; and Vietnam’s May macroeconomic indicators will be key focuses in the coming week.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
Fast sector rotation helped VN-Index maintain its uptrend
VN-Index rose 1.4%, marking the fourth consecutive weekly gain, with liquidity up 7% WoW. Money flow moved clearly and quickly across sectors linked to tariffs, spreading to others.
- VIC group stocks continued to be the main driver, contributing 13 out of 18 points to the VN-Index. However, the standout last week was the sector rotation and rallies in mid- and small-cap stocks. Starting from gains in export-related sectors (Textiles, Seafood, Industrial Parks, Ports), funds quickly shifted to Oil & Gas, Securities, Steel, etc., creating a broad-based uptrend.
- Breadth widened with 11 out of 18 sectors gaining. Real estate rose over 7% while Retail fell nearly -2%.
- Foreign investors expanded their net selling to USD 103.5 million from USD 22 million the previous week.
The Politburo directed that commune-level restructuring be completed by July 15 and provincial-level by August 15, 2025. It also tasked provincial and municipal Party Standing Committees with preparing procedures to transfer functions from district to commune level once the new regulations take effect on July 1. These consistent directives reflect a determined push to “run while organizing,” ensuring immediate restructuring after the National Assembly approves the provincial merger plan on June 24.
Price momentum is gradually weakening as the index approaches its peak range. The risk of correction is increasing in the absence of strong supportive news. Investors should proactively reduce holdings during rallies and look for short-term opportunities during pullbacks.