Update on FTSE Vietnam Index rebalancing

GLOBAL STOCK MARKET
ECB cuts interest rates for the 8th time, widening gap with the Fed
ECB cut rates by 0.25% to 2% in the June meeting, supporting gains in regional equity markets. U.S. stock market maintained an average gain of +0.6% over the last 5 sessions, with mixed movements amid tariff headlines and debates on new tax bills.
- U.S. stock indices rose by an average of 0.5% over the 5 trading sessions ending June 5, EU600 +0.7%, Nikkei 225 -0.4%, CSI 300 +0.9%.
- Commodity index +2.8%, with broad-based rebounds: Energy (oil +3.6%, gas +8.6%), Metals (gold +2.0%, silver +9.2%, copper +3.6%, HRC steel +3.5%), Agriculture (coffee +7.3%, cocoa +6.0%).
- DXY index -0.6%, 10Y U.S. Treasury yield -0.02% to 4.39%.
OECD downgraded global growth forecast to 2.9% for both 2025 and 2026, from 3.1% and 3.0% previously in March 2025. The organization also revised down U.S. growth from 2.2% to 1.6%, China from 4.8% to 4.7%, Japan from 1.1% to 0.7%, while keeping the EU forecast at 1.0% for 2025. The report highlights increasingly challenging global outlooks due to trade barriers, tighter financial conditions, declining business and consumer confidence, and escalating policy uncertainty.
CPI, M2, new loans in China; industrial production, trade balance and GDP in the UK; final GDP in Japan; PPI, jobless claims, and consumer sentiment in the U.S. are key data to watch next week.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
As blue-chips weaken, sector rotation no longer sustains the uptrend
The weakness of large-cap stocks led VN-Index to decline 0.2%, ending a 4-week winning streak. Liquidity dropped 4% WoW. Capital flow continued rotating into stocks that had not risen yet but had supportive stories, mostly small caps.
- VIC group no longer supported the index as it reversed, dragging VN-Index by -3.6 points. On the contrary, large caps that hadn’t rallied previously like MSN, PLX, REE contributed +2.5 points.
- Market balanced with 194/391 stocks gaining. Besides supported large caps, capital rotated quickly across sectors and some speculative stocks.
- Foreign investors net sold USD 72.6 million, concentrated in the final session on June 6.
Macroeconomy remains stable, CPI up 3.21% YoY (5M avg), core inflation up 3.1%, while gold and USD gained 35.3% and 3.35% respectively over 5 months; budget revenue +24.5% YoY with a surplus of VND 306 trillion.
Key growth drivers in the first 5 months:
(1) Industrial production +8.8% YoY
(2) Total retail sales of goods and consumer services +9.7% YoY vs. 8.8% in 2024
(3) Public investment +17.5% YoY, new FDI registrations +51.2% YoY, FDI disbursement +7.9%
(4) Import–export turnover +15.7% YoY, trade surplus USD 4.67 billion
(5) International visitors: 9.2 million arrivals, +21.3% YoY
→ May macro indicators continue to support GDP growth above 7% in Q2 2025.
Market watches the 3rd round of Vietnam–U.S. negotiations in early June. Investors are advised to stay cautious, reduce stock holdings, and wait for short-term trading opportunities.