Week 24_MarketVector Vietnam Local Index portfolio changes update

GLOBAL STOCK MARKET
Oil and gold prices fluctuate strongly amid new conflict risks in the Middle East
US CPI and PPI in May both increased by 0.1%, lower than the Dow Jones forecast of 0.2%. Tariffs did not impact CPI as companies had accumulated inventory beforehand. US-China negotiations reached consensus but could not lift markets due to the threat of unilateral tariffs from the US on July 8 and increasing Middle East conflict with Israel firing missiles into Iran.
- US stock indices increased by an average of 0.4% in 5 sessions up to June 12 and then shifted to an average decrease of -0.7% for futures trading, EU600 -1.6%, Nikkei 225 +0.4%; CSI 300 -0.3%.
- Commodity index +1.5%, mainly from energy (oil +12%), metals (gold +3.3%); other commodities stagnated or decreased amid new conflict risks.
- DXY index -1% to 98, with US 10-year Treasury yield -0.15% to 4.36%.
Following last week's OECD report, the WB forecasts developing and emerging countries to achieve a growth rate of 3.8% in 2025 compared to 4.2% in 2024. The WB warns that the globalization process, which has been a growth driver for many countries, is showing signs of reversal. The trade war initiated by the US is hindering nearly two-thirds of developing economies. FDI flows into this region have halved compared to their 2008 peak and are at risk of further decline in 2025. The WB calls for cooperation to restore the trade environment, support vulnerable nations, and address climate change.
Retail sales, industrial production, unemployment rate, 1-year and 5-year interest rates in China; BOJ interest rates and monetary policy; UK CPI; Retail sales, industrial production, June Fed policy meeting, US jobless claims; Interest rates and Swiss National Bank, Bank of England policy minutes are key information to watch next week.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
Market divergence amid negative news from the Middle East
VN-Index decreased by 1.1%, marking its second consecutive weekly decline with liquidity narrowing by 13%. Bottom-fishing demand in the last session of the week helped the index maintain its accumulation zone below the new resistance level of 1,310 – 1,325 points. The market diverged, but cash flow rotation showed signs of slowing as both trend and liquidity weakened.
- The VIC stock group continued to drag the market down, contributing 18 points to the VN-Index's decline. Conversely, the banking stock group contributed 4 out of 5 leading positions, thereby adding 6 points. Strong credit growth of 6.5% in 5 months, significantly outperforming the 2.41% yoy in 2024, helped the banking sector rebound.
- The number of declining stocks expanded to 231/391, while sector performance continued to diverge with 8/18 sectors gaining points. Retail and basic resources increased by over 3%, while real estate, financial services, and utilities decreased by over 1.4%.
- Foreign investors returned to net buying 14 million USD after selling 72.6 million USD last week.
The National Assembly passed a Resolution on the rearrangement of provincial-level administrative units, according to which the whole country has 34 provincial-level administrative units, including 28 provinces and 6 cities, effective from June 12. Local authorities and cities, after rearrangement, will officially operate from July 1, 2025. Key personnel will be appointed by competent authorities to ensure smooth system operation according to Guideline 1309. This is a historic decision, the largest comprehensive restructuring ever, opening new development opportunities for the economy.
Along with tariffs, the risk of Middle East conflict presents the market with new opportunities and challenges. After 3 weeks of recommending reducing holding proportions, investors may consider opening buy positions during strong volatile sessions next week for short-term trading opportunities.