Vietnam Gold Market

GLOBAL STOCK MARKET
Strong Volatility in Oil and Gold amid Escalating Middle East Conflict
Global markets remained stable following the initial shock from the Middle East conflict and showed no unexpected reaction to the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady. However, the ongoing Iran–Israel conflict, now entering its second week, continued to push oil prices to their highest levels since February 2025. 
- US stock indices rose on average by +0.08%, Nikkei 225 +1.5%, CSI 300 -0.5%.
- Commodity index +0.1%, mainly supported by oil price +4.0% (+20.2% MTD) and natural gas +14.3%, while gold  -3.5% and other metals remained flat..
- DXY index rose 0.5%, along with a modest increase in the 10Y US Treasury yield to 4.4%.
At its June policy meeting, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% and announced a plan to halve its government bond purchase program starting from April 2026. The BOJ also maintained flexibility in its bond-buying operations in case of abrupt yield spikes and warned that new US tariff measures could put pressure on the Japanese economy. The Federal Reserve also held its benchmark interest rate at 4.25–4.5%, amid expectations of higher inflation and slower growth. Despite these headwinds, the Fed maintained its projection of two rate cuts in 2025. Facing slow growth pressure, both central banks remain cautious about inflation risks stemming from new tariff programs.
Key data to watch next week: UK, EU, and US PMIs; CPI from Australia, Canada, and Japan; Canada’s GDP; US final GDP, consumer confidence, new home sales, and initial jobless claims.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
The market approached short-term resistance during the week, led by gains in the Banking sector
VN-Index rose by 2.6%, while market liquidity continued to shrink by 5%. Despite international uncertainties, the market rebounded strongly, approaching the short-term resistance zone at 1,350 points, led by bank stocks. Liquidity declined during the ETF rebalancing week, yet it remained sufficient for capital to rotate swiftly across sectors and stocks with compelling narratives.
- Continuing the momentum from the previous week, bank stocks contributed 40% of the VN-Index’s total point gain. Cash flows rotated rapidly across sectors including oil & gas and natural rubber (benefiting from rising oil prices), fertilizers, utilities, and aquaculture (seven pangasius exporters to the US were granted 0% tariffs), as well as stocks expected to post positive Q2 earnings results.
- 16/18 sectors advanced, with Chemicals and Utilities being the top gainers, while Automobiles & Components and Media posted losses.
- Foreign investors net sold VND 5.4 billion, primarily during the ETF rebalancing session, following a net buy of USD 14 million the previous week.
The Finance Minister reported to the National Assembly on the positive growth trend, indicating that the upcoming months and quarters would outperform previous periods. Q2 GDP growth is expected to improve over Q1, staying aligned with the growth scenario unless unexpected events occur in June. State budget revenues in 2023 and 2024 exceeded targets significantly, with the revenue structure shifting towards sustainability, notably via an increased share of domestic revenue. The 2025 state budget is projected to exceed the estimate by 15%, ensuring sufficient resources for socioeconomic objectives. Public investment will avoid widespread allocation, instead focusing on key infrastructure projects, with a target of 100% disbursement by the end of 2025.
The market did not experience significant volatility but made another attempt to retest the short-term resistance at 1,350 points. Investors should monitor price action at this level closely and be prepared to reduce exposure if negative signals emerge next week.