Week31_Q3/2025 Index Review Update: VN30, VNFINLEAD, VNDiamond

GLOBAL STOCK MARKET
Focus on Q2 earnings season, U.S. stocks hit new highs
The U.S. stock market remains focused on tensions between the U.S. President and the Fed Chair regarding interest rate cuts. News that the U.S. is nearing a trade agreement with the EU, with a proposed 15% tariff, also supports market sentiment. However, corporate earnings are currently the main driver, creating divergence in the market. U.S. stock indexes rose by an average of 1.1%, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new record highs.
- U.S. stock indexes rose by an average of 1% as of July 25, while the EU600 gained 0.5%, the Nikkei 225 surged 3.9%, and the CSI 300 added 1.7%.
- Commodity index rose 0.3%, with metals maintaining strong momentum: precious metals (gold +0.3%, silver +2.2%), copper +4.3%, steel +3.9%, tin +4.9%; while natural gas reversed sharply by -13.1%.
- The DXY index dropped 0.8%, ending a two-week rally to settle at 97.5. Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.03% to 4.39%.
President Trump announced a transparent and simple tariff structure ranging from 15% to 50%. Several countries are subject to the 50% rate due to strained diplomatic relations. This move reflects Washington's increasing pressure on countries that have yet to finalize trade deals before the August 1st effective date. Over the past week, the U.S. reached a 15% tariff agreement with Japan, 19% with the Philippines, and made progress in negotiations with the EU. However, high-level talks with South Korea were postponed, and trade negotiations with China may be extended, which somewhat eases pressure ahead of the approaching deadline.
Key economic data to watch next week include CPI figures for Australia and the EU; PMI readings for China and the U.S.; initial Q2 GDP release; U.S. non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and consumer confidence index; as well as interest rate decisions and monetary policy minutes from the central banks of Canada, BOJ, and the Fed.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
Breaking the 2022 record high, VN-Index enters a new phase
The VN-Index rose by 2.2%, extending its six-week winning streak alongside improved liquidity for the fourth consecutive week. Positive capital rotation among large-cap stocks and strong bottom-fishing demand supported the index's steady uptrend. With a stable price base, capital inflows remain robust, seeking opportunities in stocks with solid Q2 earnings and lagging groups that have yet to rally significantly.
Sharp divergence among large-cap stocks during the Q2 earnings season: VPB, VJC, HDB, HVN, and GEX contributed to 50% of the index's gain, while VIC-related stocks, TCB, and MSN declined.
The number of gaining sectors remained steady at 15 out of 18. After a decline last week, the Tourism & Leisure sector surged 6.4%, followed by Financial Services with +5.3%, while Real Estate and Insurance dropped by more than 1.2%.
Foreign investors ended a three-week net buying streak, turning to a net selling position of USD 57 million, compared to a net buy of USD 37 million the previous week.
As of July 25, 568 out of 1,666 listed stocks across the three exchanges have released Q2 earnings, showing a YoY net profit growth of 20%. Of these, 136 out of 392 HOSE-listed stocks reported a 16.7% increase; 4 out of 30 VN30 stocks posted 13.4% growth; and 7 out of 27 banking stocks recorded an 11.8% rise. However, Q2 net profit declined by 16.2% compared to Q1, and HOSE-listed stocks showed lower growth than the overall market. Still, preliminary earnings results are relatively positive and may change as many large-cap companies are expected to release their earnings later this week and next week.
The market posted strong gains, with intraday dips only occurring briefly, allowing the VN-Index to establish a new peak. Investors should consider actively holding the majority of their medium-term portfolio while tactically trading a smaller portion based on market movements during the Q2 earnings season.