BSC Radar | 11.08 – 15.08: Liquidity surged, with VN-Index setting a new high

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
U.S. equities opened the week with a sharp rebound
U.S. equity indices jumped early in the week following a negative close last week, which had been weighed down by tariff concerns and labor market data. Subsequent movements were choppy as no major economic releases were announced. Commodity markets declined mainly due to falling oil prices, while gold prices continued to rise after the U.S. imposed a 39% tariff on gold bars imported from Switzerland. Markets are undergoing structural shifts in response to the new U.S. tariff policies.
- U.S. equity indices gained an average of 2% as of August 7; STOXX Europe 600 +2.1%, Nikkei 225 +2.7%, CSI 300 +1.2%.
- The commodity index fell 1.9%, led by oil prices -4.9% (OPEC production increase and the Trump–Putin summit over the weekend), iron ore -2.5%, and agricultural products (orange juice -13.4%, potatoes -6%). In contrast, precious metals (gold +1%, silver +3.5%) and zinc (+3.4%) rose.
- The DXY index fell 0.9% to 98, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged up 0.04% to 4.26%.
Japan cut its GDP forecast from 1.2% to 0.7% as U.S. tariffs slowed investment spending and persistent inflation weighed on private consumption. Growth is projected to improve to 0.9% in 2026 on the back of a domestic demand recovery. While most central banks await further data before adjusting monetary policy, the Bank of England cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 4% at its August meeting, citing slower growth and persistent inflation. These two G8 economies reflect the broader challenge faced by developed nations in sustaining growth while stabilizing inflation.
Key data releases to watch next week include: new loans, M2 money supply, retail sales, and industrial production in China; interest rate decision and monetary policy statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia; industrial production, trade balance, and GDP for the UK; and PPI, CPI, initial jobless claims, and retail sales for the U.S.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
After hitting a record high, the market rises amid skepticism
VN-Index set a new all-time high, gaining 6% with trading value down 4%. The market recorded an additional session testing the peak, with trading volume reaching a new record high. Price movement showed signs of slowing at the end of the week, with intraday corrections followed by late-session rebounds. The market is rising amid skepticism after surpassing its peak.
- Large-cap stocks reversed sharply higher, with VIC and Banks among the top 10 contributors to the VN-Index. Capital flows continued rotating into sectors and stocks that have not yet rallied.
- 15 out of 18 sectors advanced, with Basic Resources, Oil & Gas, Real Estate, Banking, and Retail up from 7% to over 10%, while Automobiles & Parts fell nearly 3%.
- Foreign investors continued net selling of USD 478mn (including USD 477mn net sold in VIC), adding to USD 201mn net selling from the previous week.
July’s macroeconomic indicators remained positive, closely tracking the growth rate of the first seven months. For July and the 7-month period: Industrial Production Index (IIP) +8.5% and +8.6% YoY; Total Retail Sales of Goods & Services +9.2% and +9.3% YoY; Imports/Exports +16.8% and +16.3% YoY, trade surplus of USD 10.1bn; State investment capital +30.1% and +25.4% YoY, equivalent to 40.7% of the annual plan; Registered and disbursed FDI in 7 months +27.3% and +8.4% YoY. Macroeconomic stability indicators remained steady with CPI +3.39% YoY, average CPI for 7M +3.32%; State budget revenue for 7M +27.8% YoY, reaching 80% of the full-year target. These macro data support the Government’s 2025 targets of GDP growth at 8.3–8.5% and CPI below 4.5%.
Investors are advised to maintain the majority of their portfolio positions in the medium term and engage in short-term trades with a portion of the portfolio in line with sectoral money flow rotation in the market.