BSC Radar | 29.09 – 03.10: Rebounding from 1,615 points, the VN-Index recovered and moved around the SMA20

GLOBAL STOCK MARKET
US stock market corrected on concerns of high valuation and caution ahead of inflation data
US stock indexes recorded three consecutive correction sessions after reaching record highs. The US stock market declined after the FED Chair stated that stock valuations are currently quite high, but also affirmed that this is not a period of high financial stability risk. US Q2 GDP’s third revision increased from 3.3% to 3.8%, and lower-than-expected jobless claims were overshadowed by investor caution ahead of PCE data.
US stock indexes fell an average of -0.8% as of September 25; EU600 -0.33%, Nikkei 225 +0.6%; CSI 300 +1.1%.
Commodity index +0.8%, mainly contributed by energy prices (oil +4.6%, natural gas +11.9%); precious metals (gold +1.8%, silver +4.5%) while urea -3.6%, agricultural products (tea -2.4%, cocoa -4.3%).
DXY index rose 0.7% to 98.3, while US 10y Treasury yield increased +0.05% to 4.18%.
PBOC decided to keep the benchmark lending rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive month at 3% and 3.5% for 1-year and 5-year terms. This decision aligned with economists’ forecasts that China would temporarily pause stimulus measures as the stock market recovers, despite weak economic data. Retail sales slowed to 3.4%, industrial output dropped to 5.2%, CPI continued to decline, and export growth fell to 4.4%. Analysts still expect China to ease monetary policy by year-end to meet the 5% GDP growth target for 2025.
UK, Japan, China, EU, and US PMI; EU CPI; interest rate decision and RBA policy minutes; UK current account and GDP; OPEC meeting; US jobless claims, non-farm payrolls, and unemployment rate are key data to watch next week.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
VN-Index holds accumulation zone, highly dependent on VIC stock performance
VN-Index rose slightly by 0.1% with liquidity down 10%. Over the past two weeks, the index has been moving sideways with declining liquidity for the fourth consecutive week. Market movements remain difficult to forecast during Fubon ETF portfolio rebalancing week, with no large-cap group taking the lead.
The number of declining stocks rose compared to last week, with 218 losers versus 146 gainers. VIC remained the pillar, contributing 9.5 points to VN-Index gains. On the other hand, VHM, FPT, and HPG subtracted 6 points.
7 out of 18 sectors advanced, with Media, Oil & Gas, Automobiles & Parts, and Real Estate gaining 2% to over 7%. Conversely, Information Technology and Insurance dropped more than 3%.
Foreign investors extended their net selling streak, totaling USD 276mn compared to USD 277mn last week.
The Standing Committee of the National Assembly convened its 49th session across three phases from September 22–29, reviewing personnel matters and providing feedback on draft laws. Key laws under review include e-commerce, deposit insurance, and amendments to the planning law. The Standing Committee also discussed the adjustment of the 2025 budget across ministries, central agencies, and localities; reviewed reports from the Government, the Supreme People’s Court, the Procuracy, and the summary reports of the 2021–2026 term from the President, Government, and personnel matters. This was a regular session to review and prepare for the 10th session of the 15th National Assembly, scheduled to open on October 20.
GDP data, Q3 earnings forecasts, and the potential upgrade in market status are expected to help the market maintain its accumulation at the peak zone. Investors may consider partial profit-taking on stocks with strong gains and wait for trend-forming movements upon supportive news.