X-Stock | MWG VND 113,000, +27%: Welcoming the dawn

INVESTMENT THESIS

• After consistently exceeding its 2024 and 2025 earnings plans by +155% and +145%, respectively, MWG is expected to maintain solid growth of +30% YoY from a high base. This will be supported by its ability to capture structural shifts in the retail sector and an already optimized operating model, with DMX serving as the key earnings pillar (+20% YoY) and BHX as the key growth pillar (+127% YoY) as it enters a new growth cycle for 2026–2030.
• MWG is currently trading at a 2026 forward P/E of 14.4x. This valuation has initially reflected the expected value of DMX’s core business and MWG’s net cash position, but has yet to fully price in BHX’s growth potential.

Catalyst: MWG re-rating through the IPO of DMX in 2026.

KEY 2026 EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS

2026 business plan: MWG targets net revenue and NPAT of VND 185,000 billion (+18% YoY) and VND 9,200 billion (+30% YoY), respectively. Growth will continue to be driven by DMX (revenue +14% YoY and NPAT +20% YoY), and BHX (revenue +18% YoY and NPAT +127% YoY).

2026 earnings forecast: Based on: (1) the company’s “quality over quantity” strategy and operational optimization efforts during 2022–2025, which have gradually proven effective as MWG exceeded its business plans for two consecutive years, achieving 155% of its 2024 plan and 145% of its 2025 plan; and (2) the industry shift toward greater transparency, which should help leading modern retailers such as MWG capture market share expansion opportunities.

• DMX: DMX is expected to capture the product premiumization trend, leverage flexible financial solutions such as buy-now-pay-later, and continuously upgrade value-added services. These factors should support revenue growth and margin improvement, with gross margin (expected to expand by +0.7 percentage points YoY).
• BHX: BHX is expected to expand its store coverage (+900 new stores versus the plan of 1,000 stores)  while improving operating efficiency and staying on track for its IPO timeline during (2028–20300.

Accordingly, we raise our 2026 earnings expectations for MWG, with net revenue and parent-company NPAT forecast at VND 184,793 billion (+18% YoY) and VND 9,112 billion (+89% YoY), respectively. This is broadly in line with MWG’s 2026 business plan. Compared with our previous forecast, revenue is revised -4% due to adjustments to non-core business segments, while parent-company NPAT is revised up by +6%, corresponding to a 0.5 percentage-point improvement in profit margin versus our previous estimate, reflecting our more positive outlook on MWG’s two core business segments.