X-Alpha | PVD VND 39,450, +25%: Reaffirming its position and breaking out with a new asset cycle

VALUATION VIEW

We maintain our BUY recommendation on PVD with a 2026F target price of VND 39,450/share, implying an upside of +25% versus the closing price on April 23, 2026. Our target price is derived from a blended valuation approach, combining EV/EBITDA and DCF methodologies with equal weightings of 50%/50%.

EARNINGS FORECAST

We forecast 2026 net revenue and NPAT-MI at VND 13,779 billion (+26% YoY) and VND 1,154 billion (+11% YoY, or +28% YoY excluding non-recurring income in 2025), respectively. This corresponds to EPS of VND 1,973/share, a 2026F forward P/E of 16.9x, and a 2026F EV/EBITDA of 7.8x. This outlook is underpinned by the following assumptions: (i) day rates improve by +6% YoY, with new contributions from PVD VIII and PVD IX; and (ii) the well technical services segment maintains growth momentum of +15% YoY from the high base recorded in 2025.

COMPANY UPDATE

Q1 2026 earnings estimate: Net revenue is estimated at VND 3,500 billion, doubling YoY, while PBT is estimated at VND 400 billion, up +100% YoY. 2025 earnings results: Net revenue reached VND 10,897 billion (+17% YoY), NPAT-MI reached VND 1,039 billion (+49% YoY), exceeding BSC’s forecast by 24%. (Further details are provided in the Company Update section).

2026 AGM update: PVD proposed a 66.9% capital increase to VND 9,282 billion to expand borrowing capacity and bidding capability. The company also suspended cash dividends to allocate resources toward rig investments. Management set a conservative 2026 NPAT plan of VND 800 billion (-22.8% YoY).

INVESTMENT VIEW UPDATE (Please refer to BSC’s latest report for further details)

• Well technical services segment: Service demand from the Block B – O Mon project, estimated at 40–50 wells per year, provides a stable workload foundation. Revenue for 2026–2027 is forecast at VND 4,000–5,000 billion per year (+153%) versus the 2022–2024 base period, while gross profit is expected to reach around VND 1,000 billion per year (+188%).
• Drilling services segment: The segment is expected to record full contributions from PVD VIII and PVD IX, which are scheduled to commence operations from (Q2 2026). Jack-up revenue is forecast to increase by +41% in 2026, driven by the higher number of operating rigs and spot day rates in Q1 2026 reaching a new peak of approximately USD 99,200 (+33% versus the 2025 average).

RISKS

(1) Sharp fluctuations in oil prices could affect rig day rates upon contract renewals.

(2) Financial cost pressure: Persistently high borrowing rates and the risk of unrealized FX losses from the revaluation of foreign-currency debt could weigh on short-term earnings.

(3) Execution risk: Potential delays in revenue recognition from new rigs and bottlenecks in the implementation of the Block B mega project could directly affect future backlog.