X-Stock | VGC 51,800 +23%: Q1/2026 Earnings Update and 2026 AGM

2026 – 2027 BUSINESS OUTLOOK
1. Building Materials Segment: Double benefit from the anti-dumping tax policy on construction glass and corporate restructuring activities to optimize costs.

• Anti-dumping tax policy improves profit margins for the construction glass segment: On February 3, 2026, under Decision 228/QD-BCT, Vietnam applied temporary anti-dumping duties ranging from 15% to 63% on clear float glass products imported from Indonesia and Malaysia. This measure is effective for 120 days and can be extended for another 180 days before the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) issues its final conclusion.
• Corporate restructuring and cost optimization: Following three challenging quarters, VGC proactively implemented a restructuring plan to optimize costs and streamline operations. Specifically, the company decided to close 7 branches and business locations in November 2025.

2. Industrial Park (IP) Real Estate Segment: Expected to be supported by infrastructure development and favorable policies aimed at attracting high-quality FDI.

• Currently, VGC operates 11 industrial parks concentrated in the North, with an estimated remaining commercial land area of 707 hectares, and is developing 6 new IPs—adding approximately 1,474 hectares of commercial land in the future.
• Additionally, the government is drafting a resolution on the foreign-invested economy to enhance FDI attraction in the new cycle.

3. The strong promotion of the "1 million social housing units" policy will positively impact the company's IP Real Estate and Building Materials segments: Beyond its direct contribution to profit, social housing development also enhances the value of VGC’s industrial parks while creating additional demand for building materials manufactured by the company itself.

 

Q1/2026 FINANCIAL RESULTS UPDATE
Revenue reached VND 3,273 billion (+15% YoY, -13% QoQ), NPAT-MI reached VND 215 billion (-33% YoY, -61% QoQ):

• Building materials revenue reached VND 2,106 billion (+55% YoY) as the suburban Hanoi real estate market continued to add apartment supply. Notably, the construction glass segment generated VND 792 billion (tripling over the same period last year) thanks to the positive impact of the anti-dumping tax.
• IP Real Estate revenue reached VND 716 billion (-41% YoY), equivalent to handing over approximately 22 hectares of land, fulfilling 15% of the 2026 target (150 hectares).
• IP operations-related revenue reached VND 198 billion (+27% YoY), driven primarily by increased electricity sales.

Gross profit margin reached 26%, down -3 percentage points (pps) YoY. This decline was mainly due to a lower contribution from the IP Real Estate segment—which yields the highest gross margin (55%)—and the commencement of revenue recognition from social housing, which carries a lower gross margin of 12%. However, the overall gross margin for most segments improved significantly:

• Construction glass gross margin reached 12%, up 5.2 pps thanks to the anti-dumping tax.
• IP Real Estate gross margin reached 55%, up 10 pps due to the handover of high-priced land plots.

SG&A-to-revenue ratio stood at 12%, down 0.5 pps YoY due to streamlining and dissolving inefficient building materials branches.

Note: Q1 NPAT-MI decreased by 33% YoY, primarily because the IP Real Estate segment (where VGC holds an average ownership of 90%) contributed less than the Building Materials segment (where VGC holds an average ownership of 70%).

 

BSC’s ASSESSMENT OF Q1/2026 RESULTS
Q1/2026 revenue and NPAT-MI fulfilled 22% and 15% of BSC’s full-year forecasts, respectively, as the revenue recognition for the IP Real Estate segment is skewed toward H2/2026:

• The construction glass segment achieved 35% of its revenue forecast, with a gross margin of 12% (4 pps higher than expected). However, we need to wait for Q2 results to confirm this positive trend before upgrading our forecasts.
• For the IP Real Estate segment, at the 2026 AGM, management shared that the company had signed contracts for 111 hectares in just the first 4 months of the year. Therefore, the handover of only 22 hectares in Q1 (reaching 15% of the 150-hectare company target and 12% of BSC's 179-hectare forecast) is a matter of accounting timing rather than a reflection of actual demand. Revenue from this segment is expected to increase significantly in the subsequent quarters.

Therefore, we maintain our current full-year 2026 forecasts.

 

BSC’s INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION
BSC maintains a BUY recommendation for VGC stock with a 2026 target price of VND 51,800/share, representing a +23% upside (compared to the reference price on June 1, 2026) based on the Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method.

Although we have revised our valuation down by 5% compared to the previous report, the stock price has also corrected 25% from its recent peak, opening up an attractive investment opportunity. With 2026 NPAT-MI projected to reach VND 1,441 billion (+3% YoY), the stock is currently trading at a 2026 Forward P/E of 13.4x, a 15% discount to its 2021 – 2025 historical average (15.8x).