X-Stock | BMP VND157,080 +6%: The Dividend King

Q4/2025 EARNINGS UPDATE

By the end of Q4/2025, BMP recorded net revenue of VND1,286bn (+22% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND261bn (+13% YoY). Key highlights include:

• Sales volume: Sales volume reached 21,871 tonnes (+23% YoY), supported by the recovery in real estate market demand. However, compared with Q3, sales volume declined by 16% QoQ due to intensifying competitive pressure and BMP losing market share. According to BSC’s survey, some distributors of peer companies such as NTP also applied a 5% discount on orders, plus an additional 2% discount for customers making full upfront payment upon delivery at the end of December.
• Gross margin reached 46.3%, up 4.1 ppts YoY, mainly driven by a 23% YoY increase in sales volume.
• The discount-to-revenue ratio remained high to maintain market share. Specifically, total deductions, payment discounts, and selling expenses accounted for 21% of net revenue, up 1 ppt QoQ. According to BSC’s survey, some BMP distributors also launched discount policies from late November to mid-December. BSC notes that, seasonally, BMP rarely offers high discount policies in Q4. However, given the current increase in discounts, BSC believes competitive pressure and market share losses may become more pronounced in the coming period.
• Overall, NPAT-MI reached VND261bn. NPAT increased by 13% YoY, mainly thanks to a 23% YoY increase in sales volume. However, compared with Q3, NPAT declined by 25% QoQ as BMP continued to increase discounts to defend market share.

ASSESSMENT OF Q4/2025 EARNINGS

• BMP continued to maintain high selling prices and lost market share, resulting in lower sales volume compared with Q3. This was in line with BSC’s expectation. However, BSC assesses that BMP’s pace of market share loss is faster than our previous estimate. This is evidenced by the fact that the company still had to maintain a high discount ratio in Q4, which is typically the peak season. Therefore, in this report, BSC will raise its discount assumptions for 2026.
• The decline in PVC prices was in line with BSC’s view; however, the timing of low-cost inventory was not as expected. BSC believes this was due to BMP increasing inventory purchases in September. As a result, the decline in global PVC prices was not yet reflected in Q4/2025 gross margin. BSC expects low-cost inventory to be reflected in Q1/2026.
• For full-year 2025, BMP recorded net revenue of VND5,510bn (+19% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND1,229bn (+24% YoY), completing 97% of BSC’s revenue forecast and 91% of BSC’s profit forecast, respectively.