X-Stock | PC1 VND31,000 +21%: 4Q2025 Earnings Update and 2026 Outlook

4Q2025 EARNINGS UPDATE

4Q2025: Revenue reached VND5,012bn, up 98% YoY and 53% QoQ, while NPAT-MI reached VND552bn, up 807% YoY and 83% QoQ.

Full-year 2025: Revenue reached VND13,085bn, up 30% YoY, and NPAT-MI reached VND1,046bn, up 129% YoY.

 

4Q2025 Earnings Analysis

• Construction revenue reached VND2.6tn, up 117% YoY, while industrial manufacturing revenue reached VND419bn, up 84% YoY, supported by the large-scale Con Dao submarine cable project.
• Commercial real estate revenue reached VND774bn, driven by the handover of 90 low-rise units at the Phu Thi Riverside project.
• This offset mining revenue of VND237bn, down 15% YoY, due to a sharp decline in selling prices amid nickel oversupply pressure.
• Gross margin reached 21.3%, down 1.7 percentage points YoY:
• The construction segment recorded a gross margin of 15.9%, up 8.8 percentage points YoY and the highest level on record, mainly because the Con Dao submarine cable project had a high construction workload contribution.
• The commercial real estate segment recorded a gross margin of 18%, lower than the industry average, as public land auctions resulted in higher land costs.
• The mining segment recorded a gross margin of 32%, down 14 percentage points YoY, as the estimated average selling price declined by 7% YoY.

 

BSC’S ASSESSMENT

PC1’s full-year 2025 revenue and NPAT-MI completed 106% and 163% of BSC’s forecasts, respectively. The earnings beat was mainly driven by:

• The company accelerating handovers at the Phu Thi Riverside project, more than twice as fast as our forecast. However, gross margin reached only 18%, lower than our expectation of 32%.
• The construction segment delivered revenue broadly in line with expectations, but gross margin increased abnormally in 4Q2025, bringing the full-year gross margin of this segment to 11.6%, 3.1 percentage points higher than our estimate.
• Other business segments remained in line with our estimates.

 

2026–2027 BUSINESS OUTLOOK UPDATE

Construction and Industrial Manufacturing

• In 2025, EVNNPT completed 260 power grid projects at the 100kV–500kV level, compared with only 61 projects in the same period, and continued to accelerate power grid investment after two years of delays in order to catch up with the implementation timeline of Power Development Plan VIII. Please refer to BSC’s power sector strategy report for further details. As of end-4Q2025, PC1 recorded construction backlog of VND8,250bn, 20% higher YoY.
• In 3Q2025, the company started construction of a new steel pole manufacturing plant in Thai Nguyen, with capacity of 40,000 tonnes per year. The company has disbursed VND255bn, and the plant is expected to commence operations from August 2026. We view this pre-emptive investment positively, as the Government is drafting policies to strengthen localization in national power projects. The draft has been open for comments since 17 October 2025. Please refer to BSC’s sector report for more details.

Industrial Park Real Estate: Positive Policy Tailwinds from the Government

• The Government has issued Decree 20/2026, supporting a minimum 30% reduction in land rental fees during the first five years from the signing date of land lease contracts for high-tech enterprises, SMEs, and start-ups in the innovation sector. In addition, we are awaiting more specific details on the upcoming decree supporting high-tech FDI enterprises.
• PC1 held the groundbreaking ceremony for Phase 2 of the Japan–Hai Phong Industrial Park project, covering 197 ha, in January 2026 after two years of waiting. In addition, its joint venture Western Pacific, in which PC1 owns 30%, still has land bank across four industrial parks. These industrial parks are all located in Northern Vietnam, have favorable locations, and should directly benefit from the policy support for high-tech FDI.

Commercial Real Estate: The Gia Lam – Thap Vang project still has approximately VND700bn in revenue and VND80–90bn in net profit to be recognized in 2026.

 

VALUATION

We raise our target price by 27%, from VND24,400/share to VND31,000/share, based on the following adjustments:

• The valuation of the construction and industrial manufacturing segments increases by 132%, driven by EBITDA rising from VND308bn to VND550bn.
• Construction and industrial manufacturing revenue are revised up by 17% and 11%, respectively, while gross margins are revised up by 0.5 percentage points and 1.5 percentage points, respectively.
• We lower the SG&A-to-revenue ratio by 0.6 percentage points compared with our previous report.
• For the industrial park real estate segment, we add the valuation of the Nomura 2 Industrial Park project, as the company held the project’s groundbreaking ceremony in January 2026, officially moving the project into the implementation phase.

 

RECOMMENDATION

PC1’s share price has increased by 14% and exceeded BSC’s previous target price. We raise our 2026 valuation for PC1 by 27%, from VND24,400/share to VND31,000/share, and upgrade our recommendation from HOLD to BUY, implying 21% upside versus the closing price on 12 February 2026.The increase in our new target price reflects a re-rating of the power construction, industrial manufacturing, and industrial park real estate segments, supported by positive Government policies. PC1 is currently trading at 7.04x EV/EBITDA, a 21% discount to its five-year average of 8.9x for 2021–2025.