X-Stock | GEX VND48,800 +23%: 2025 AGM Update and 2026–2027 Business Outlook

2026–2027 BUSINESS OUTLOOK

1. Electrical Equipment (GEE): Large room for market share expansion; strong beneficiary of localization policies

CADIVI’s market share in Northern Vietnam currently stands at around 18%, leaving significant room for growth compared with its 60% share in Southern Vietnam. Its competitive advantages come from product quality, suitability to customer demand, and competitive pricing. In addition, EVN is expected to accelerate investment in the power grid after two years of delays, in order to catch up with the implementation timeline of Power Development Plan VIII.

Another key highlight is that GEE has mastered the technology to manufacture 500kV – 3x300MVA transformers, a segment in which Vietnam currently remains fully dependent on imports. This should help the company expand its market share in the industrial power infrastructure segment. In addition, the draft decree on the development of the manufacturing industry in the power sector proposes a minimum localization ratio of 60% and prioritizes domestic contractors for nationally important projects. If officially issued, this policy would create a sustainable growth driver for GEE from 2026 onward. BSC will provide further updates once more information becomes available.

2. Construction Materials (VGC): Gross margin recovery and restructuring toward optimization

On 3 February 2026, under Decision No. 228/QD-BCT, Vietnam imposed provisional anti-dumping duties on imported clear float glass from Indonesia and Malaysia, with tariff rates ranging from 15% to 63%. Based on BSC’s estimates, the application of anti-dumping duties could help VGC’s glass segment gross margin recover from -5.3% in 2025 to approximately positive 8%, 10%, and 12% in 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively.

In addition, VGC is restructuring its subsidiaries, streamlining its organization, reducing overlapping functions, and centralizing raw material procurement to secure better discounts. BSC expects the SG&A-to-revenue ratio of this segment to decline to 15.2% in 2025 and 14.7% in 2026, from 15.5% in 2024.

3. Industrial Parks (VGC, PXL, Titan Hai Phong): Infrastructure and policy tailwinds to support FDI attraction

On 19 December 2025, the Government simultaneously commenced construction of more than 234 major projects nationwide, which should help reduce logistics costs over the medium to long term and enhance Vietnam’s competitiveness. In addition to previous policies, the Government is also studying a resolution on the foreign-invested economic sector to strengthen FDI attraction in the new cycle.

Currently, VGC operates 11 industrial parks concentrated in Northern Vietnam, with remaining leasable land estimated at 707 ha. The company is also developing six new industrial parks, which would add approximately 1,474 ha of future leasable land, doubling its current land bank. PXL is expected to accelerate Phase 1 development of the 300-ha Long Son Industrial Park project, out of a total project area of 850 ha.

 

 

2026–2027 FORECASTS

In 2026, revenue and NPAT-MI are forecast to reach VND43,081bn, up 9% YoY, and VND1,201bn, down 19% YoY, respectively. Excluding one-off gains in 2025, NPAT-MI would decline by 7% YoY.

• Electrical equipment revenue is projected at VND26,877bn, up 7% YoY, supported by EVN’s accelerated investment in power grid infrastructure under Power Development Plan VIII.
• Power and water infrastructure revenue is projected at VND1,736bn, up 34% YoY, driven by the Song Da water plant’s capacity expansion to 300,000 m³/day.
• Other revenue, including hotel leasing and social housing, is projected at VND1,829bn, up 204% YoY. Key drivers include the Fairmont hotel commencing operations and the Kim Chung social housing project being handed over in 4Q2026.
• Financial expenses are forecast at VND2,319bn, up 31% YoY, as the company increases foreign-currency borrowings and interest expenses related to the Fairmont hotel are no longer capitalized.

In 2027, revenue and NPAT-MI are forecast to reach VND45,844bn, up 6% YoY, and VND1,296bn, up 8% YoY, respectively.

• Electrical equipment revenue is forecast at VND28,870bn, up 7% YoY.
• Construction materials revenue is forecast at VND9,771bn, up 9% YoY, supported by a recovery in the real estate market and the initial effectiveness of anti-dumping duties on construction glass.

We revise down our 2026 NPAT-MI forecast by 19% compared with our previous report, mainly due to:

• The Fairmont hotel project commencing operations one year earlier than expected, leading to higher interest expenses and depreciation.
• The company raising an additional USD200mn in debt in 1Q2026, which directly increases interest expenses and FX losses.

VALUATION

We lower our 2026 target price by 8%, from VND53,200/share to VND48,800/share, based on the following assumptions:

• We raise WACC from 10.7% to 11.6% and increase the cap rate for investment properties from 6% to 9%, reflecting a higher interest rate environment compared with 2025.
• We increase the valuation of the construction materials segment by 50%, from VND8,300bn to VND12,482bn, assuming that anti-dumping duties on construction glass will lift the segment’s gross margin by 2 percentage points, while corporate restructuring will reduce the SG&A-to-revenue ratio by 0.7 percentage points.
• We add VND2,800bn in book value from two subsidiaries: Titan Hai Phong, an industrial park developer, and FIH, which owns the commercial housing project at 226 Le Lai, Hai Phong. In 1Q2026, GEL completed a VND2,800bn IPO fundraising to contribute capital to these two companies.
• However, during GEL’s IPO capital increase in 4Q2025, GEX did not subscribe for additional shares, resulting in its ownership in GEL declining from 80% to 70%.

 

RECOMMENDATION

Despite an 8% downward revision to our valuation, GEX’s share price has also corrected by 38% from its recent peak, opening up a BUY opportunity. We set a 2026 target price of VND48,800/share, implying 23% upside versus the reference price on 10 April 2026, based on the sum-of-the-parts valuation method. We forecast 2026 NPAT-MI at VND1,201bn, down 19% YoY. The stock is currently trading at a 2026F P/E of 30.2x, broadly in line with its 2021–2025 average.