X-Stock | VCB 75,800 +17%: Q42025 Business results update and 2026 Outlook

Q4/2025 EARNINGS OVERVIEW:

VCB recorded Q4/2025 PBT of VND 10.9 trillion (+2% YoY), bringing full-year 2025 PBT to more than VND 44.0 trillion (+4% YoY), broadly in line with BSC’s previous forecast and completing 101% of the bank’s plan. The bank’s Q4 total operating income reached VND 19.2 trillion (+8% YoY), while full-year TOI reached VND 72.4 trillion (+6% YoY), completing 98% of BSC’s forecast.

A key highlight in VCB’s Q4 results was the reversal of around VND 2.7 trillion in specific provisions, related to several outstanding loans from the COVID-19 period. Over the past four years, such reversals have tended to recur in Q4 each year.

2026 BUSINESS GUIDANCE:

VCB’s credit growth is expected to range from at least 13% to a maximum of 20%, although the official credit quota from the SBV has not yet been granted. Deposit growth is expected to outpace credit growth. The debt sale to VCBNeo is essentially a one-off event. Credit cost is expected to remain flat at 0.2%–0.3%. LLCR is expected to stay within the 150%–200% range. NPL recovery is expected to maintain momentum. PBT growth is expected to be similar to 2025, in the range of 5%–10%. The bank will balance profit growth with growth quality.

INVESTMENT VIEW:

Overall, VCB’s earnings do not show significant breakout growth, but instead focus on stability and sustainable growth. Therefore, investment in VCB will depend on investors’ risk appetite. In a volatile market environment, VCB could be a reasonable defensive choice.

After correcting by nearly 20% from its peak, VCB is trading at a relatively comfortable valuation of 2.4x TTM P/B and 2.0x 2026F P/B. BSC’s latest forecast is for VCB’s 2026F PBT to reach VND 48.5 trillion (+10% YoY), broadly in line with the bank’s preliminary guidance. BSC recommends BUY on VCB based on our latest target price of VND 75,800/share. The key catalyst for a share price re-rating would be the private placement, as well as the planned reduction in state ownership to 65%.