X-Alpha | KBC 42,400 +21%: A Prime Landing Ground for Eagles

BSC’s RECOMMENDATION

BSC maintains its BUY recommendation on KBC with a target price of 42,400 VND/share, implying 21% upside from the closing price on 8 May 2026 and 8% lower than our previous report. Our recommendation is based on the following views:

1. Industrial real estate handover volume is expected to remain positive (investors may refer to the section above for details), supported by efforts from both sides: KBC is accelerating infrastructure development, while FDI enterprises are strengthening engagement and completing procedures with the government. However, at this stage, we apply a 20% discount to the valuation of Trang Cat Urban Area compared with our previous report, as the infrastructure development and sales launch timeline of Trang Cat Urban Area appears to be slower than expected. As of now, the company has only reached the sand filling and site leveling stage.
2. The change in our target price compared with the previous report is mainly due to the discount applied to the valuation of Trang Cat Urban Area. We will consider revising our target price once there is more information on the wholesale transaction of this urban area. Without applying this discount, the target price would reach 47,000 VND/share, equivalent to 35% upside.

2026 BUSINESS OUTLOOK

1. KBC’s industrial real estate leasing activities are expected to recover positively, with estimated handover area of around 207 ha, compared with only 129 ha in 2025, mainly to partners from China and South Korea.
2. For the residential real estate segment, the Trang Cat Urban Area mega-project may not yet be recognized in 2026. Revenue in 2026 is expected to come from the two social housing projects: Nenh Town Social Housing and Trang Due Social Housing.

EARNINGS FORECAST: In 2026, BSC forecasts KBC to record revenue of 10,456 billion VND (+53% YoY) and NPAT-MI of 2,834 billion VND (+35% YoY). Excluding one-off income from asset revaluation in 2025, core operating profit is expected to increase 60% YoY, equivalent to 2026 forward EPS of 3,009 VND/share and 2026 forward P/E of 9.8x.

CATALYST: Information on the buyer of Trang Cat Urban Area.

RISKS: (1) Lower-than-expected industrial park handover volume; and (2) significant debt repayment pressure in the coming period.