X-Alpha | HPA 35,500 +4%: 2026 turning point. New scale shapes future strength

BSC’s RECOMMENDATION

BSC recommends FOLLOW for HPA with a 2026 fair value of VND 35,500/share (Upside of +4% compared to the reference price on 05/06/2026), with a target P/E = 8x and EPS FWD 2026 = VND 4,425/share. BSC assigns a FOLLOW recommendation in the context that:

• 2026 hog sales volume is affected by (i) Minh Duc Farm undergoing renovation, (ii) Long Ha 2 Farm retaining piglets for herd replenishment.
• Gross profit margin is expected to decrease by 6 % points due to feed input costs estimated +10% YoY.

BUSINESS OUTLOOK 2026 -2027

1. Hog prices are expected to remain flat in the range of VND 65,000/kg - 70,000/kg in 2026 as hog supply remains constrained.
2. Sales volume is projected to decline -23% YoY in 2026 due to (i) Minh Duc Farm being renovated from end-2025, (ii) Long Ha 2 Farm beginning the buildup of a new batch of finishing pigs.
3. Gross profit margin is expected to decrease by 6 % points due to feed costs increasing by 10% YoY.

2026 EARNING FORECAST

In 2026, BSC forecasts HPA to record Net revenue = VND 8,122 billion (+0% YoY) and NPAT-MI = VND 1,159 billion (-27% YoY), equivalent to EPS FWD = VND 4,425/share, based on the assumptions of total sales volume of 100kg commercial hogs = 356,707 heads (-6% YoY), breeding pigs = 154,000 heads (-45% YoY) due to the renovation of Minh Duc Farm and Long Ha 2 Farm retaining breeding stock for herd replenishment, and gross profit margin = 20.0% (-6.2 % points) due to higher input costs.

RISK:

Hog prices trend downward due to oversupply at the end of 2027.