X-Stock | KDH 39,900 +45%: Q4/2025 Earnings Update

EARNINGS UPDATE

4Q2025 results: Net revenue declined 11% YoY to VND 1,816bn.

Thanks to the handover of low-rise units at Gladia, gross margin expanded to 71% in 4Q25 from 44.4% in 4Q24 (when KDH handed over high-rise units at The Privia), driving gross profit up 42% YoY to VND 1,290bn.

Financial expenses declined 56% YoY to VND 75bn, indicating a lower payment discount rate at Gladia of approximately 4.2% vs. 8.4% at The Privia.

Overall, KDH recorded NPAT of VND 793bn (+102% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 496bn (+25% YoY) in 4Q25.

For FY2025, NPAT-MI reached VND 1,053bn (+30% YoY), fulfilling 105% of the full-year target, driven by the handover of the remaining units at The Privia and 70 low-rise units at Gladia by the Water. By end-2025, KDH had sold 135 low-rise units at Gladia by the Water (~60% absorption rate), exceeding our expectation of 100 units.

Overall, KDH's FY2025 results were broadly in line with our expectations, with actual revenue and PBT reaching 99.8% and 101.4% of our forecasts, respectively. Meanwhile, actual NPAT-MI was 22% above our forecast of VND 863bn, mainly due to lower-than-expected corporate income tax expenses.

2026 BUSINESS PLAN

At the Analyst Meeting on January 14, 2026, management expected KDH to deliver net profit growth of 50–150% YoY, equivalent to VND 1,500–2,000bn, driven by (1) approximately VND 500bn in profit from remaining inventory at existing projects, and (2) the remaining contribution from the handover of low-rise units at Gladia. Given that construction is nearly complete and sales have exceeded expectations, we expect to revise up our 2026 NPAT-MI forecast, currently at VND 1,199bn, which is 20–40% below management's guidance.