X-Alpha | VPL 100,000 +33%: Vietnam’s No. 1 Hospitality Brand

DETAILED REPORT

BSC RECOMMENDATION

BSC initiates a BUY recommendation on VPL with a target price of VND 100,000/share, implying 33% upside from the closing price on August 18, 2026, based on the following views:

1. We expect VPL to deliver an average earnings growth rate of approximately 35% CAGR, supported by: (1) a 34% increase in hotel capacity and the addition of three new VinWonders parks from now through 2030; (2) we also expect these new projects to achieve high occupancy and utilization rates relatively quickly and enter a stable operating phase, as all newly invested locations are expected to become major tourism destinations in Vietnam; (3) we apply a capitalization rate approach to value the hotel segment (Vinpearl) and the entertainment segment (VinWonders), using capitalization rates broadly in line with the required returns of comparable hotels and amusement parks globally; and (4) we use our 2028 forecasts to fully reflect VPL’s earnings potential after the new hotels and entertainment complexes commence operations.
2. However, we apply a 15% discount to our estimated value per share of VND 115,000 to reflect: (1) the high interest rate environment; and (2) weaker market liquidity toward the end of 2026.

2H2026 OUTLOOK

For the remainder of 2026, we expect VPL’s core business to maintain positive growth momentum, supported by: (1) continued growth in international tourist arrivals to Vietnam, which should benefit the hotel and entertainment businesses, together with the company’s efforts to strengthen sales and diversify its customer markets; and (2) revenue and profit recognition from Vinpearl Phu Quy in 2H2026.

EARNINGS FORECAST

For 2026, BSC forecasts VPL to record net revenue of VND 16,072bn (+3% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 3,123bn (+183% YoY), equivalent to 2026F EPS of VND 1,793/share and a 2026F P/E of 46x.

RISKS

(1) Visitor traffic at VinWonders and Vinpearl comes in below expectations; and (2) the handover of Vinpearl Phu Quy is delayed versus expectations.