X-Alpha | DPG 35,000 +29%: Impressive Comeback of the Infrastructure Construction Segment

VALUATION VIEW
As of September 21, 2026, DPG has corrected -26.4% YTD, compared to the VNIndex's +2.5% YTD gain. We believe this underperformance stems from 2 main factors: (1) sales at Casamia Balanca have faced significant challenges due to objective market headwinds, while the real estate segment is expected to be the main profit growth driver in 2026-2027, (2) negative sentiment affecting market perception related to trading activity by certain individuals and external organizations in DPG shares.
BSC believes the most negative news has already been priced into the stock and believes DPG will continue to be one of the companies benefiting from the high-tech infrastructure investment trend, given its proven capabilities, large investment scale, as well as newly secured contracts from the MOU with Vinspeed on the Hanoi - Hai Phong high-speed railway. We maintain our BUY recommendation with a target price of VND 35,000/share (upside +29%), down -26% from the previous target price after adjusting for delays in real estate project timelines and the company's debt financing needs.

EARNINGS FORECAST
Compared to our previous forecast, BSC has revised down the projected contribution from the real estate segment due to delayed sales progress at Casamia Balanca, while revising up the forecast for the Construction segment due to newly signed contracts and a continued healthy backlog. The construction segment's outlook is better than expected, with newly signed contract value reaching VND 5,087 billion as of end-August 2026 (+16.8% higher than the whole of 2025), and secured with an additional ~20km/120km of the Hanoi – Quang Ninh high-speed railway. Specifically, as construction segment handover volume offsets the real estate segment:
2026: Net revenue reaches VND 7,479 billion (+67% YoY), in line with our previous forecast, but NPAT-MI falls -16% to VND 415 billion (+27% YoY). Sales at Casamia Balanca are forecast to decline -66% to VND 1,031 billion.
2027: Net revenue reaches VND 8,594 billion (+15% YoY) and NPAT-MI = VND 478 billion (+9% YoY). We maintain our expectation that the glass segment will begin commercial operation from Q4/2026, but with insignificant impact on 2026-2027 business results.

VALUATION
DPG is currently trading at 2026F P/B = 1.01x and 2027F P/E = 0.91x – below the -1 standard deviation level of 1.11x and close to the 5-year valuation trough of 0.89x recorded in 2022. We believe this valuation level presents an attractive entry point for value investors, as the company continues to maintain growth at historically peak profit levels, and the "headwinds" facing the real estate and hydropower segments have already been priced in.