X-Alpha | PDR 13,100 +15.9%: Thu Thiem’s “Aspiration”

VALUATION VIEW           

PDR is undergoing the most sweeping overhaul in its corporate history: (1) a portfolio restructuring that sees it divest nearly all pre-2024 projects to focus on Lotte Eco Smart City, and (2) a clean-up of legacy balance-sheet issues dating back to 2018 tied to The EverRich 2 & 3.

We downgrade PDR from BUY to NEUTRAL with a target price of VND13,100/share (+15.9% upside), 54% below our previous target, after reassessing the project portfolio and factoring in risks around capital needs and market absorption. That said, we see this as the right time to start monitoring PDR: (1) valuation looks attractive at 2026F P/B of only 0.9x, and (2) an inflection point could emerge from real cash proceeds from divestments and the company’s commitment to Lotte Eco Smart City.

EARNINGS FORECAST

In 1H2026, PDR divested equity stakes in three projects – Thuan An 1, the Tam Hiep high-rise residential complex and Serenity Phuoc Hai – for cash proceeds of about VND4,713bn. We expect divestments to continue and remain the key earnings driver in 2H2026-2027.

2026F: net revenue of VND654bn (-51% YoY). Financial income of VND1,564bn (+145% YoY) from divestment gains is not enough to offset (1) VND307.3bn of provisions for BT projects, (2) VND196.6bn of provisions for doubtful receivables, and (3) weaker Quy Nhon Iconic handovers and La Pura services. NPATMI falls 41% YoY to VND302bn.

2027F: net revenue of VND1,252bn (+92% YoY) and NPATMI of VND445bn (+48% YoY) from a low base. We continue to expect about VND950bn of divestment gains from Thuan An 2 and better Quy Nhon Iconic handovers, offsetting VND393bn of interest expense and the remaining VND119bn of BT provisions.

COMPANY UPDATE

On August 10, 2026, PDR paid VND7,666bn for a 35% stake in Lotte Properties HCMC Co., Ltd., the developer of Lotte Eco Smart City (total investment of about VND60,000bn; VND17,569bn land-use fee settled in July 2026). We appreciate PDR’s competitiveness in outbidding large rivals to partner with Lotte. However, funding pressure from Lotte and the rest of the pipeline remains the market’s main concern amid high interest rates