BSC_Vietnam Marco Market Outlook_EN_2019

Regarding marco-economic of 2019, BSC forecasts that GDP growth in 2019 will reach 6.7%. The macro is stable with inflation below 4%, the exchange rate falls below 3% and interest rates rise below 0.5%. Consumption and trade are the keys to growth. Public investment is expected to accelerate to complete the socio-economic development plan for the period 2019-2020 (Table 9).

Regarding stock market of 2019, VN-Index forecasts price scenarios from 800.3 to 1,265.6 and 1050 points at the end of 2019. The positive period is from March to June. The news stock market upgrade granted by FTSE Russell is expected to be an important driving force to attract new cash flows to participate. Market capitalization is forecasted to reach USD 202 billion thanks to new exchange and listing activities. Average market liquidity is expected to be 310 million USD / session (Table 16).

Regarding notable investment stocks in 2019, the groups of stocks are expected to have advantages and interest in 2019, including: (1) Stocks in the VN30 thanks to the expectation of upgrading the market class; (2) Stocks benefiting from the trade war include Textiles, Fisheries, Industrial Zones and Seaports; (3) Defensive stocks with high income, industries with stable and long-term growth potentials such as Utilities, Pharmaceuticals, and information technology; (4) Fundamental stocks, which are not only reasonably valued but also listed in the government divestment plan; (5) Industries focused on domestic consumption growth such as retail, beverages, aviation services ...

About issues that are sure to significantly affect the market outlook in 2019:
1. US-China trade war.
2. US stock market may enter the "bear market" cycle at the end of 2019.
3. Oil price development in 2019.
4. Development of USD/VND exchange rate in 2019.
5. Vietnam's public debt and major public investment projects.
6. Growth of Vietnam's middle class.
7 .Amendments of stock market regulations and market upgrade possibility.