Macro&Market Jan 2019__Rising from low price, Improved business results_20190213

Macroeconomics
• PMI rebounded to 51.9, down from 53.8 in the previous month, and lower than the 2018 average of 53.7 points.
• Total retail sales of consumer goods and services in January was estimated to be VND 402.2 trillion, up 4.4% over the previous month and up 12.2% over the same period last year.
• In January, registered FDI increased by 27.3% over the same period last year while disbursed FDI increased by 9.3% compared to last year. FDI capital focuses on processing, manufacturing se tor and transportation-warehouse sector.
• The interbank USD exchange rate fluctuates between 23,200 - 23,255 VND/USD, down from the range of 23,245 - 23,360 VND/USD in December. Short-term and medium-term interbank rates dropped while long-term interest rates went flat in January.

Stock Market
• HSX recovered slightly while HNX continued to maintain a slight decline. VN-Index officially increased by 18.1 points compared to the end of last month (+ 2.03% MoM) and HNX-Index decreased by 1.35 points (-1.3% MoM).
• Average liquidity on 2 exchanges decreased by 33.19% compared to December 2018, and decreased to VND 3,246 billion/session, equivalent to nearly USD 139.3 million/session.
• In January, foreign investors bought net numbers of VND 1326 billion on the HSX with and VND 183 billion on the HNX.
• P/E of VN-Index recovered to 15.33, equivalent to + 2.35% MoM and HNX-Index fell to 8.37, equivalent to -2.98% MoM. Compared to December 2018, the P/E of the VN-Index maintained the 8th position and HNX-Index slipped to the 19th position in Asia.

Market Outlook in February
The trend of pulling and increasing slightly is expected to continue in February when the sentiment after the holiday still dominates. However, when foreign investors continue to maintain the current net buying momentum, domestic investors will soon catch up with the market. We believe that VN-Index will continue to maintain a slight upward momentum towards 940 - 960 points in February. In February, BSC offers two scenarios as follows:
• In positive case, VN-Index will increase to close to 960 points with the rotation of large stocks. Liquidity remained at medium level and tended to increase gradually at the end of the month.
• In negative cases, VN-Index may return to check 900 points if there is information from the world.

Recommended stocks:
• The sectors and stocks are evaluated positively in the 2019 Sector Outlook Report (link) and (Link);
• Stocks of Banking and Finance have strong improvement, stock groups benefit from trade agreements and production shift from trade war;
• High defensive stocks such as Electricity, Information Technology - Post, Retail Consumption have high growth and dividends;
• In the long term, BSC's recommended stocks will be mentioned in quarter IV sector strategic reports (Link), Stocks with good changes are recommended in the weekly Investment consultant Report and Sector/company update reports (link).