Macro&Market May 2019_Test and rebound from low index level_20190608

Macroeconomics
• PMI index increased from 51.7 to 52.5 in April, which is lower than the 2018 average of 53.7 points.
• Total retail sales of consumer goods and services in 4 months were estimated at VND 793.8 trillion, an increase of 12.2% compared to the same period last year.
• In 4 months, registered FDI increased by 50.4% YoY while disbursed FDI increased by 7.5% compared to last year. FDI capital mainly focuses on processing and manufacturing industries.
• The interbank USD exchange rate fluctuated in the range of 23,240 - 23,265 USD/VND, a slight increase compared to the range of 23,200– 23,255 USD/VND in March. Interbank interest rates increased slightly in the first 2 weeks of the month and plummeted in the last 2 weeks of the month.

Stock Market
• HSX and HNX correctted slightly. VN-Index officially decreased by 19.8 points compared to the end of last month (-2.02% MoM), (+ 7.54% YtD) and HNX-Index fell 3.11 points (-2.89% MoM), (+ 0.12% YtD).
• The average liquidity on 2 exchanges increased by 11.14% compared to April 2019, and increased to VND 4,342 billion / session and equivalent to nearly USD 187.16 million / session.
• In May, foreign investors bought a net on the HSX of VND 3833 billion, net selling of VND 270 billion on HNX.
• P/E of VN-Index dropped to 16.57, -1.77% MoM, + 10.23% YtD and HNX-Index fell to 7.79, equivalent to -5.73% MoM, -10.54% YtD. Compared to April 2019, the P/E of VN-Index maintained its 9th position and the HNX-Index continued to hold the 19th position in Asia.

Market outlook in June
VN-Index is testing support level of 950 points with low liquidity. Large stocks and key sectors will soon return to support the market. VN-Index continues to forecast 950 points - 1,000 points in June. The trend of declining points at the bottom in the first week of June then stabilizes and recovers gradually at the end of the month. In June, BSC offers 2 scenarios as follows:
• In case of positive, VN-Index keeps above 950 points and will check 1,000 points. Liquidity increased gradually at the end of the month with the circulation of industries and the anticipation of Q2 earnings results.
• In case of negative, VN-Index may drop below 950 points if there are unfavorable information from the world.

Recommended stocks:
• Industries and stocks are evaluated positively in the Industry Prospects Report 2019 and Quarter II Industry Outlook ;
• Stocks of Ports, Textiles, Fisheries, Furniture and Industrial Zones benefited from trade agreements and production shift from trade war;
• Stocks traded based on volatility from NVL and oil prices;
• High defensive stocks such as Electricity, Information Technology - Post, Retail consumption have high growth and dividends;
• In the long term, BSC's recommended stocks will be mentioned in the IV quarter sector strategic reports , the stocks with good changes are recommended in the Weekly Investment Report and Industries / companies update report .