X-Alpha | VGC VND54,800 +24%: Comprehensive Policy Support

Detailed report

VALUATION VIEW

We recommend BUY on VGC with a 2026 target price of VND 54,800/share, implying a 24% upside, including a 2% dividend yield, based on the reference price on March 26, 2026, using the sum-of-the-parts valuation method. We forecast 2026 net profit to reach VND 1,458 billion (+4% YoY), equivalent to a 2026 forward P/E of 13.5x, representing a 15% discount to the 2021–2025 five-year average of 15.8x.

 

2026–2027 BUSINESS OUTLOOK

The building materials segment is expected to benefit from both anti-dumping duties on construction glass and internal restructuring/cost optimization.

The industrial park real estate segment is supported by infrastructure development and supportive policies, helping attract high-quality FDI.

The policy to develop one million social housing units is being strongly promoted and is expected to have a positive long-term impact on VGC’s projects. Although the social housing segment contributes only 6% to our total valuation, it has a significant impact on the industrial park real estate segment by improving surrounding residential infrastructure, while also creating additional demand for the company’s building materials segment.

 

EARNINGS FORECAST

In 2026, revenue is forecast to reach VND 14,671 billion (+10% YoY), while NPAT-MI is expected to reach VND 1,458 billion (+4% YoY and +55% compared with 2025 core NPAT-MI).

Building materials revenue is expected to grow by an average of 5% YoY, supported by anti-dumping duties on construction glass and the acceleration of social housing projects.

Residential real estate revenue is forecast to increase by 185% YoY, driven by the accelerated handover of the Kim Chung social housing project in Q4/2026.

Industrial park real estate revenue is expected to grow by 11% YoY as government support policies start to take effect in the second half of the year.

The SG&A/revenue ratio is projected to reach 12.1%, down 0.7 ppts, thanks to the company’s active restructuring of the building materials segment in 2025.

In 2027, revenue is forecast to reach VND 15,196 billion (+4% YoY), with the building materials segment growing by 9% YoY, continuing to benefit from the recovery of the real estate market, especially the social housing market.

NPAT-MI is expected to reach VND 1,606 billion (+10% YoY).