X-Stock | MBB VND 33,000, +19%: Q4 2025 earnings update and 2026 outlook

Q4 2025 EARNINGS UPDATE:

MBB reported consolidated PBT of VND 11.1 trillion in Q4 2025 (+38% YoY), above BSC’s expectation. For full-year 2025, PBT reached VND 34.3 trillion,  (+19% YoY), equivalent to 107% of BSC’s latest forecast.

Total operating income reached VND 19.5 trillion in Q4 (+18% YoY). For full-year 2025, total operating income reached VND 67.6 trillion (+22% YoY), equivalent to 103% of BSC’s forecast. The strongest positive surprise came from net fee income, which reached VND 2.1 trillion in Q4 (+78% YoY) and VND 6.6 trillion for the full year (+ 51% YoY), equivalent to 129% of BSC’s forecast.

2026 BUSINESS GUIDANCE:

MBB targets credit and deposit growth of 35% in 2026. PBT is expected to grow by 15–20% (equivalent to VND 39.5–41.0 trillion), while ROE is targeted to remain above 21%. NIM is expected to stay broadly flat at around 4.0% (+/-0.1%), with earnings growth to be supported by credit scale expansion as the bank prioritizes market share gains. Group-level NPL is targeted <1.5%, while standalone NPL is targeted <1.0%, with the group’s medium- to long-term target at 1.0–1.3%. The bank aims to maintain its LLCR at 100%.

INVESTMENT VIEW:

With its advantage in credit growth quota, MBB remains one of BSC’s preferred banking stocks for 2026. Balance sheet expansion is expected to remain MBB’s key growth driver in 2026, with the standalone credit growth limit potentially reaching up to 35% after MBB takes over CGBB through MBV. In addition, by selling bad debts to MBV, MBB could free up additional credit room and access refinancing from the SBV based on the pace of debt sales, providing the bank with further tools to optimize its balance sheet and profitability.

Looking further ahead, in order to fully optimize this advantage and meet the more stringent Basel III standards, BSC expects MBB to develop a private placement plan to improve its CAR (currently stands at around 11.1% and is relatively lower than that of TCB or VPB).

At the current price, MBB is trading at a P/B = 1.6x and a 2026F P/B = 1.3x, based on BSC’s latest 2026F PBT forecast of VND 41.3 trillion (+20% YoY). BSC maintains its BUY recommendation with the latest target price of VND 33,000/share.